Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 250 or more times Jan 24-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1abab48ecc675ee3014984d43abd861a15aa539729ac2cde4feee3e733cfe7ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 1c | 2,223$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 59c | 920.63$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.52 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 68c | 788.36$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.29 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…76dcbacked Yes | 65c | 675$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…7640backed Yes | 79c | 576.5$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed No | 34c | 560$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 45c | 410$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 21c | 192.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 27c | 184.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed No | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +250.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 29c | 120.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 70c | 100.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…90c9backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f8…30afbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +181.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccd…bd25backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24e…348dbacked Yes | 80c | 22.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…5093backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 250 or more times Jan 24-31?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times Jan 24-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.