Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 24-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x948783ba97b920fec2f2100c1aefe011f70015e1617be05d3441e64b896155cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cdd…76dcbacked Yes | 8c | 4,000$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 5c | 2,181$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,529$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 9c | 457.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 9c | 219$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 18c | 68.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb16b…03ffbacked Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 77c | 21.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 79c | 21.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 24-31?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250 or more times Jan 24-31?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times Jan 24-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.