MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1316606d1a7188b4238fc91fbe13fdb7ddce0c811c127324c389e69ba08dd81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 18,981$8,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,045.52 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 9,725$5,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,181.56 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 4,615$2,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.78 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 2,495$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.8 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 2,458$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.63 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Miami Marlins | 10c | 2,364$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.18 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…27c9backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 1,973$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.47 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 1,268$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.09 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 1,240$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.04 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…7640backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 673$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.93 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 649.38$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.86 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9f…88d6backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 399.9$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7605…4ec0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 230.51$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a45…6b5fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 128$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 95.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 67.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Miami Marlins | 30c | 51.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.