Tennis · resolved market
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Barcelona Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ea56a85883beb97fe545df42fa5ef204327eb46261ceccea975ecd3d04bc2f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7bf…89b3backed Yes | 65c | 29,639$19,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,265.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa988…5fd1backed No | 35c | 29,639$10,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,265.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 25c | 5,838$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,402.33 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 17c | 2,670$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226.62 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…7640backed Yes | 65c | 1,846$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 19c | 1,793$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.38 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,755$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.53 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed No | 76c | 1,532$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Yes | 80c | 871$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.8 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed No | 78c | 296.1$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yes | 80c | 251$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.58 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 70c | 213.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 19c | 137.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 24c | 134.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 76c | 132$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645b…893cbacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 106.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 62c | 101.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 77c | 83.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 70c | 54.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 34c | 37.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 62c | 31.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…cd7bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 58c | 23.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Barcelona Open?this page
- Will Holger Rune win the 2025 Barcelona Open?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.