Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150-159 times April 4 - 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41bc14fd6f666f1de539e6f1e6ea4b47dc8d473d54e9303679f49a8540b49c50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 36,441$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.78 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…10f7backed Yes | 1c | 14,022$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,444$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.18 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 4c | 6,005$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.26 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 6c | 4,098$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.26 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 3,275$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…fe91backed Yes | 25c | 2,922$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 19c | 2,857$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.59 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 6c | 2,264$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71b…7517backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 19c | 1,797$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.23 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 5c | 1,701$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 1,601$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…6542backed Yes | 1c | 1,560$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,288$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 70c | 1,032$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.75 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,004$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 14c | 902.63$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 6c | 898.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed Yes | 11c | 864.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 6c | 848.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 73c | 777$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.24 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 6c | 756.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 23c | 749.85$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…dd04backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 8c | 709.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 28c | 586.41$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 9c | 536.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 17c | 528.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 8c | 522.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 14c | 519.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 4c | 515.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 10c | 502$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 8c | 499.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…a548backed Yes | 9c | 478.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…1395backed Yes | 21c | 474.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +313.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a07…41eebacked Yes | 3c | 445.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 434.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 14c | 432.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 10c | 388.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 10c | 365.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 3c | 337.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…c0efbacked Yes | 15c | 328.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 292.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…8e76backed Yes | 30c | 278.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 15c | 235.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…ced6backed Yes | 23c | 222.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 8c | 214.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 13c | 212.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 19c | 210.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 8c | 208.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 25c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 12c | 179.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…e34dbacked Yes | 10c | 173.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…b534backed Yes | 13c | 170$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a74…b4afbacked Yes | 12c | 163.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes | 13c | 161.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 12c | 157.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 12c | 138.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 10c | 135$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…8018backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 72c | 132.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 9c | 129$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 9c | 128.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2431…51babacked Yes | 26c | 124.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…0e1fbacked Yes | 12c | 124.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 17c | 102.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 18c | 102.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…2c6fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…2cf0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 28c | 92.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…38f8backed Yes | 15c | 83.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 14c | 78.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca3…1068backed Yes | 27c | 75.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…e63bbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8555…858bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150-159 times April 4 - 11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 110-119 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120-129 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130-139 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140-149 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160-169 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 190-199 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210-219 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220-229 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240-249 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 4 - 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.