Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 210-219 times April 4 - 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4c6f4f96f873217c1cbf5b8f476208808cf9756b117f051018e555d62c43059
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,107$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 2c | 4,127$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 3c | 3,860$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 1c | 3,231$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,212$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 1,651$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 4c | 1,440$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 1,431$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,263$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,216$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 4c | 1,093$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 1,062$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 1,040$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 2c | 998.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 915.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 6c | 580.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 3c | 544.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 3c | 508.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 5c | 439.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…f5b6backed Yes | 3c | 390.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 7c | 343$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…281cbacked Yes | 4c | 305.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 5c | 205.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…4021backed Yes | 10c | 196.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 210-219 times April 4 - 11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 110-119 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120-129 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130-139 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140-149 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-159 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160-169 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 190-199 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220-229 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240-249 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 4 - 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.