TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$292,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$293,292

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,421 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes27c12,937$3,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,430.87540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No74c12,746$9,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,253.1851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes42c8,388$3,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,526.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5be7…d440backed No76c7,536$5,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.56933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Yes19c6,994$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.782821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-56.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes20c6,741$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.592147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No44c6,428$2,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,572.4120549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2395…6154backed Yes1c5,955$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed Yes11c5,609$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.29837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No69c5,126$3,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,594.9313746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes20c5,041$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.02385.3%2 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e39…c633backed Yes4c4,747$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes1c4,613$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8113033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc9b…7faabacked Yes20c4,362$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.7840%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No68c3,863$2,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.717142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes32c3,780$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.175141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No71c3,674$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.936942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No51c3,299$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.66253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes52c2,918$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.518139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4895…0a83backed Yes25c2,894$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.911127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd863…4df2backed No75c2,688$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed Yes1c2,540$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.41216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No71c2,448$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.89154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes37c2,429$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.788037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No80c2,383$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.1664339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa1bd…2992backed Yes32c2,172$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.75850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes23c2,091$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.564318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes35c2,090$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72619639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No72c2,087$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.153225%8 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes4c2,061$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No63c2,016$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.38641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc8…89b6backed Yes22c2,000$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.941216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62035347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes31c1,749$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.5517347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee64…c04ebacked Yes34c1,701$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes47c1,691$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.14753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No71c1,584$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.768137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes22c1,545$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.4610151.5%52 W · 49 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+35.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd23…0242backed Yes27c1,541$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.11560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb094…af05backed Yes44c1,534$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed No79c1,472$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.872540%10 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f8…451fbacked Yes43c1,452$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No29c1,452$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.2111545.2%52 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No71c1,388$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.184126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No80c1,382$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.787360.3%44 W · 29 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb3e…36f3backed Yes22c1,355$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb45…d6babacked Yes41c1,330$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes12c1,326$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.0316651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00c0…c91ebacked No73c1,202$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.934100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes21c1,192$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.752433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No31c1,161$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.845354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No55c1,157$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.5818151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes20c1,150$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.361225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes24c1,125$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.71922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf526…35b1backed No77c1,124$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked Yes32c1,102$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.83742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e84…7040backed Yes22c1,081$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No46c1,027$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.969647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes7c1,009$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.669535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5167…dc43backed Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed Yes35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes18c999.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.122528%7 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed No73c993.65$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.293542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…1b02backed Yes21c956.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003135.5%11 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+52.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes4c927.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes21c918.61$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.14837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9529…7c6abacked No75c916.74$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.062536%9 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No49c914.8$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.5619930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No57c909$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.94944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No68c906.54$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.923551.4%18 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbec2…10dabacked Yes30c905.51$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c865.32$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4786542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed No79c844.47$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.77142.3%30 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes28c840.34$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.8340828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes21c829.37$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.188143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No64c817.77$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.561844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5744…9093backed Yes37c804.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb38…ce37backed Yes38c755.15$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No71c754.99$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.679247.8%44 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa5…b56abacked No67c748.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.09520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-70.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2324…c779backed Yes20c747.47$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c740.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.42078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbef6…9380backed Yes26c737.62$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes28c713.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes29c710$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked Yes29c699.34$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.921070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No75c695.09$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.641687.5%14 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick68cpaid+29.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes43c688.85$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.37147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-85%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35f6…4f56backed Yes36c671.77$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36bf…efa8backed Yes30c656.36$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476a…2a22backed No73c650.27$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1446…939abacked No73c649.37$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No79c646.04$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.043669.4%25 W · 11 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+39.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e16…84d7backed Yes17c631.55$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.11631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x349c…7413backed Yes4c622.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No66c600$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.667051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c598.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.191,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c569.85$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No74c550$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14128750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes64c549.38$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.8447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.