Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24862a7e609a03cb5d81bb644edb2f45e28bba648dc7c16d5e634cc3832d5faf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67f9…d241backed No | 49c | 7,830$3,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,019.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 52c | 4,025$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.42 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 45c | 1,576$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.6 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 1,552$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.89 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 58c | 1,495$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…8617backed Yes | 49c | 1,300$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7695…4cd7backed No | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e1…64dbbacked Yes | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…f34fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,090$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…443cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,010$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed No | 53c | 1,000$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.75 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…96e0backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0653…690ebacked No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1379…2548backed No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb756…8a10backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…99f5backed No | 40c | 995$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe357…e06dbacked No | 39c | 990$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 45c | 964.19$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.04 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…de78backed No | 53c | 875$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 58c | 854.28$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.95 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…5390backed No | 39c | 820$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…b88ebacked No | 53c | 785$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…245abacked Yes | 47c | 755$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…accfbacked Yes | 61c | 755$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e5…ba7dbacked Yes | 60c | 750$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 27c | 730.3$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.61 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf02…3638backed Yes | 49c | 720$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…58c3backed No | 51c | 710$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…bc95backed Yes | 60c | 705$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe760…0ae4backed Yes | 60c | 685$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 60c | 625.87$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…1bafbacked No | 40c | 620$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 11c | 619.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Yes | 51c | 603.4$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…2ff5backed Yes | 62c | 590$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…026dbacked No | 52c | 580$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…d6e4backed Yes | 61c | 570$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…ca7ebacked Yes | 61c | 560$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…2e13backed No | 38c | 550$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…c408backed Yes | 63c | 545$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…403cbacked No | 52c | 530$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…3257backed Yes | 61c | 530$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…53ffbacked Yes | 60c | 515$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…253bbacked Yes | 47c | 490$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…bd3cbacked Yes | 60c | 480$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked No | 56c | 478.82$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…fc19backed No | 51c | 450$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…2b47backed No | 51c | 430$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…6777backed Yes | 61c | 430$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…d6dfbacked No | 47c | 427.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa62…dc58backed No | 40c | 420$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd112…c648backed No | 53c | 415$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e83…2cbebacked Yes | 47c | 410$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked No | 57c | 390$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68b0…d1a5backed Yes | 61c | 385$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c5…ead5backed Yes | 62c | 375$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 42c | 356.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…47c8backed No | 53c | 355$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…0824backed No | 37c | 335$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…0d0fbacked Yes | 61c | 330$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 45c | 321.21$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac18…9154backed No | 40c | 320$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…44a4backed No | 53c | 315$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…382ebacked Yes | 60c | 315$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…b41abacked No | 51c | 315$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf54…5abbbacked Yes | 47c | 305$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…1f1bbacked Yes | 47c | 295$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…7bd5backed Yes | 63c | 290$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…1391backed Yes | 60c | 290$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 51c | 284.81$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.14 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…0b73backed No | 37c | 280$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6efc…c084backed No | 40c | 275$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…b68fbacked Yes | 49c | 275$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 51c | 267.27$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.35 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…531cbacked No | 37c | 265$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…dc7fbacked No | 40c | 265$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0a…263dbacked No | 42c | 259.45$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…7793backed No | 53c | 255$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…5408backed No | 38c | 255$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…d655backed No | 40c | 255$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 54c | 237$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 43c | 233.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8235…c814backed Yes | 60c | 230$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…43f3backed No | 53c | 225$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +161%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9d…0791backed No | 51c | 215$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed No | 43c | 206.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8ab2backed No | 47c | 203.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed No | 41c | 202.56$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed No | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…d7debacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…a86ebacked Yes | 49c | 195$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…ea64backed No | 40c | 190$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 44c | 189.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 58c | 178.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc0…b57bbacked No | 40c | 175$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9500…ebbcbacked No | 39c | 175$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.