Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ed774d0018504eecdb36868546049159b0fe8fdfb6135b9953ac813c0fdeb60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae29…d0c3backed Yes | 10c | 50,522$5,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,052.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 21c | 1,622$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 11c | 892$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 9c | 799.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 8c | 606.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…a7a8backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 11c | 381.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 270$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…22b0backed Yes | 10c | 260$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 249.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 9c | 243.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 9c | 211.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44bd…a7b7backed Yes | 9c | 206.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 9c | 156.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 154.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed Yes | 10c | 132$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 16c | 109.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.