Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc80e6cfbf3d28180b6a291b6db13a885b92400ebcf83dac9be16acb917c18c2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 12c | 18,963$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,762$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.18 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 8c | 4,439$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.05 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 19c | 2,720$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 12c | 2,038$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 80c | 1,975$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 10c | 1,850$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 13c | 1,642$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.85 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1c…e773backed Yes | 11c | 1,419$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,244$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…918abacked Yes | 12c | 1,209$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 11c | 1,200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,183$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…22b0backed Yes | 11c | 1,103$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa119…7891backed Yes | 11c | 1,096$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…eb3dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,009$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…b95ebacked Yes | 11c | 874.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda40…12e3backed Yes | 12c | 864.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…35fbbacked Yes | 12c | 854.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 13c | 800$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…47e7backed Yes | 9c | 796.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 12c | 796.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 13c | 712.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 12c | 617.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 12c | 549$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…3352backed Yes | 18c | 545$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…3d51backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94cd…0eeebacked Yes | 12c | 482.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 10c | 458.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…49e4backed Yes | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec7…f874backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 11c | 412.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 11c | 400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…97c9backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 396.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 387.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 11c | 351.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…0d06backed Yes | 11c | 335.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…0099backed Yes | 11c | 331.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a9…c50cbacked Yes | 12c | 325.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…c75bbacked Yes | 13c | 315.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…78f9backed Yes | 12c | 313.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…07f6backed Yes | 11c | 304.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…8d9cbacked Yes | 10c | 302.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd28f…b499backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…739cbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…d823backed Yes | 11c | 281.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…eea5backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 11c | 275.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 11c | 270.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 9c | 259.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…9a64backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf222…9718backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…6409backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…802fbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked Yes | 12c | 201.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…f6cabacked Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…b56dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed Yes | 12c | 190$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…2695backed Yes | 14c | 175.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 12c | 164.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…3b57backed Yes | 12c | 159.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…de66backed Yes | 14c | 156$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…7471backed Yes | 13c | 155.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 9c | 154.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a07…41eebacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 14c | 145.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…8eefbacked Yes | 8c | 139.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…fcf5backed Yes | 13c | 138.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…19d2backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…febabacked Yes | 11c | 126.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 11c | 125.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…bcffbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 12c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 11c | 116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d0…6cbebacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…84e5backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…8191backed Yes | 11c | 102.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…bcc9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…4925backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…3cf8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…c316backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd3…e46abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…3a85backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…3367backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.