Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a1ad666d1b9d2e70c187fde472c4d1bc59823bbe4de73fd0b66d3b999b74707
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 4c | 15,759$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.57 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed No | 2c | 9,498$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 8,008$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed No | 2c | 5,131$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 1c | 4,809$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 2c | 3,632$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…9f1ebacked No | 3c | 3,197$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 3,147$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 2c | 2,516$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 1c | 2,158$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked No | 3c | 2,105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…49e4backed No | 3c | 1,837$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed No | 2c | 1,519$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked No | 2c | 1,038$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ec…8d71backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…56c4backed No | 3c | 950$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 2c | 935$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…fd12backed No | 3c | 737.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed No | 2c | 670$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…7022backed No | 2c | 664.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked No | 2c | 599.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fff…f10dbacked No | 3c | 555.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…3367backed No | 2c | 554.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8329…96c2backed No | 4c | 488$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…19d4backed No | 2c | 444.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…9538backed No | 6c | 360.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…a40abacked No | 4c | 276.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.