Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf117b69caa6e27b6724d266e1ccc04192140b3b352912fdc6ac87fdbc8c386b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cbd…79a4backed Yes | 16c | 2,023$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5578…4ccbbacked Yes | 25c | 2,005$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 21c | 1,477$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 80c | 1,460$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.94 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 13c | 1,417$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 20c | 1,309$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.87 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3ad8backed Yes | 22c | 1,256$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…db5ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,190$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 15c | 1,001$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…4679backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 21c | 571.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 12c | 563$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 79c | 521$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…abe1backed Yes | 17c | 464.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 11c | 462.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 462.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x861a…9d0dbacked Yes | 11c | 450.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 10c | 427.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9340…c2ffbacked Yes | 16c | 399.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 15c | 375$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 14c | 351.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…fe70backed Yes | 15c | 302.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…e7eabacked Yes | 19c | 300.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…77e0backed Yes | 21c | 300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 16c | 262.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +56%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8ab2backed Yes | 13c | 235$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 11c | 234$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1efc…0298backed Yes | 20c | 202.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 172$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 17c | 161$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f2…54ecbacked Yes | 16c | 154.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 17c | 151.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 16c | 147.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…f7f5backed Yes | 16c | 143$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…802fbacked Yes | 14c | 142.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022c…a15fbacked Yes | 22c | 140.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 18c | 138$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 15c | 137.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…e3b0backed Yes | 10c | 135$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…fa19backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…60cbbacked Yes | 11c | 114.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 77c | 106.52$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…69b7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a5…47ecbacked Yes | 23c | 97.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 77.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…38ffbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…f553backed Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…169dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa682…51edbacked Yes | 49c | 40.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 80c | 35.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.