Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x637a4f0c32dba6b4a70fa8aeda19841b7e900985b0ffeab709cc2769745f44ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked No | 18c | 75,338$13,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,509.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes | 77c | 40,000$30,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,700 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…9ec9backed No | 20c | 37,824$7,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,111.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +296.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed No | 14c | 7,347$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,322.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed No | 10c | 5,331$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,806.87 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 6c | 2,550$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.63 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed No | 9c | 2,263$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,059.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,012.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 7c | 2,117$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.95 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb7…17e1backed No | 9c | 1,146$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +319%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 70c | 1,126$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.92 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…22b0backed No | 10c | 1,112$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…bb91backed No | 14c | 1,033$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbf…83bfbacked No | 14c | 707.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 3cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 15c | 703.06$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed No | 16c | 700$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 13c | 601.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 20c | 592$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 10c | 497.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 5c | 402.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.69 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 14c | 320$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 4c | 312$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 4c | 312$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…8699backed No | 14c | 277.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +361.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed No | 11c | 274.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94cd…0eeebacked Yes | 29c | 245$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked No | 58c | 243.92$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed No | 16c | 235$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5429…a2ecbacked No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +161.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…6409backed No | 12c | 204.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8ab2backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…c75bbacked No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…543fbacked No | 15c | 171.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +242.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…7057backed No | 14c | 165$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked No | 10c | 158.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…3a85backed No | 14c | 139.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…ee06backed No | 16c | 137.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f6…8812backed No | 17c | 121.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…f5ccbacked No | 14c | 110$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fa…3fa6backed No | 13c | 105.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +653.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked No | 20c | 94.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38f…10acbacked No | 11c | 91.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 78c | 91.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba7…d16dbacked No | 13c | 89.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +249.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…06edbacked Yes | 29c | 84.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 81.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…1633backed No | 25c | 78.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +293.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba9…1eaebacked No | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 63.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…802fbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…11fbbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52db…8010backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf222…9718backed No | 32c | 61.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed No | 31c | 59.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 77c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 70c | 44.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…db08backed No | 76c | 17.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.