Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ab97ad5cbed06dac95b0bf6d292104fea1e952e97a49e2c80b694cec1233e57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 78c | 6,419$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.39 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 20c | 1,627$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.25 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked No | 25c | 1,202$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…37adbacked Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…109bbacked No | 25c | 995$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 60c | 980.5$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.25 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…89eabacked No | 27c | 925$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed No | 31c | 703.25$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 67c | 635.13$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.92 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…4875backed Yes | 75c | 615$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…44a9backed No | 25c | 605$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc110…0401backed Yes | 73c | 605$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked No | 24c | 585.39$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 18c | 550$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 72c | 418.34$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848b…8d58backed No | 25c | 395$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 67c | 373.5$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…dc7fbacked Yes | 75c | 360$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…9496backed Yes | 73c | 360$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 32c | 310.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 27c | 285$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 22c | 280$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 12c | 220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 208.3$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 57c | 197$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.91 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8ab2backed No | 34c | 189.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9017…e7f4backed No | 35c | 170.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 33c | 159.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed No | 14c | 147.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…49e4backed No | 34c | 147.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 73c | 145$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…5556backed Yes | 70c | 141.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 139.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked No | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…96a6backed No | 45c | 110.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 75c | 102.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1644…53febacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed No | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked No | 33c | 71.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 63c | 66.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 65c | 61.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…4c14backed Yes | 77c | 60.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3998…5fdcbacked No | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 73c | 51.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…0394backed Yes | 67c | 31.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…1621backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…7813backed Yes | 71c | 25.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…3888backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…b68fbacked Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa75…3caabacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.