Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x544a53ebc3fb9b47b2ddeb8a5cd6cf8a5e66848e9abb39a4d22e70e0e39844be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 14c | 2,782$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.96 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 16c | 2,666$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.89 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 11c | 2,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 24c | 1,998$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 12c | 1,678$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.77 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 8c | 1,440$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 13c | 1,384$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.62 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 24c | 1,302$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.65 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked No | 12c | 1,135$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 11c | 944.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 21c | 915.71$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.57 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3ad8backed No | 9c | 719$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 15c | 656.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 11c | 627$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 13c | 596.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 20c | 506$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 28c | 500$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 13c | 477$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 9c | 440$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…137cbacked No | 14c | 414$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 25c | 400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 14c | 364.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 63c | 358.89$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked No | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 21c | 337.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…af12backed No | 14c | 291.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 29c | 231$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 63c | 229$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 227.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 12c | 212.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…879ebacked No | 17c | 208.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked No | 9c | 208.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 10c | 205.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 11c | 185.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 11c | 172$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 54c | 168.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8ab2backed No | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed No | 11c | 158$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…843abacked Yes | 69c | 144.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 104.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 13c | 89.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe90…acb5backed Yes | 66c | 85.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 39c | 84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb913…b77ebacked Yes | 77c | 62.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6852…0721backed Yes | 78c | 52.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a31…1bebbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…bb35backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.