Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f98d74f52ef00eb9d6420ddd72cf9880d3bf143d00cc8cc5f04fc47451b1f7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3779…0f80backed No | 43c | 2,948$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 78c | 2,743$2,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 72c | 1,683$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 32c | 1,620$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.71 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 1,528$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.67 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 22c | 1,306$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.73 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 21c | 1,191$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.89 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 36c | 1,180$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 35c | 1,165$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.96 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac18…9154backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc110…0401backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…9eeebacked Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…52ddbacked No | 31c | 980$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Yes | 73c | 979$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 60c | 875.96$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a0…7694backed No | 30c | 865$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed No | 22c | 767.54$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked No | 13c | 758.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 60c | 726.54$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe760…0ae4backed Yes | 68c | 690$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…8accbacked Yes | 70c | 675$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…9a9bbacked No | 30c | 655$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa890…1c30backed No | 31c | 655$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…43f3backed No | 30c | 560$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +161%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…3257backed No | 32c | 535$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 33c | 515$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 14c | 503.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 6c | 499$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…a5b0backed No | 32c | 460$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…403cbacked No | 30c | 410$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 23c | 399.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.99 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 70c | 399.08$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafd8…4050backed No | 32c | 374.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 28c | 350$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.2 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…eb42backed No | 30c | 345$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 37c | 345$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.38 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8235…c814backed No | 31c | 345$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…4c80backed Yes | 70c | 325$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 71c | 324.47$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.03 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62e5…ba7dbacked Yes | 68c | 310$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed No | 30c | 300$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 28c | 300$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 34c | 290.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 280$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked No | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 34c | 247.8$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked No | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 11c | 226.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 40c | 220.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0147…85d4backed No | 31c | 213.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71e…55acbacked Yes | 72c | 202.21$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…f258backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed No | 24c | 200$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed No | 28c | 199.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked No | 32c | 197.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked No | 31c | 196.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.82 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 50c | 196.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 20c | 185.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 28c | 171.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.93 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 40c | 170.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8ab2backed No | 31c | 169.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked No | 50c | 165$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…bc8ebacked Yes | 77c | 155.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…67e0backed No | 32c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 69c | 150$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked No | 27c | 148.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0116backed Yes | 68c | 147.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa695…22ddbacked Yes | 70c | 142.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes | 71c | 140.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…e7b8backed Yes | 74c | 140$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes | 69c | 139$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…3c58backed Yes | 73c | 135.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…74c1backed Yes | 72c | 125.89$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…11fbbacked No | 43c | 116.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d61…4855backed No | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 74c | 113.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed No | 32c | 103.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a9…628fbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb756…8a10backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 32cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 88.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 71c | 85.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked No | 28c | 83.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…2724backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 69c | 80.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 28c | 74.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d28…ad63backed Yes | 70c | 71.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…fcd8backed No | 32c | 70.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…0394backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c3…b141backed Yes | 69c | 67.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 26c | 65.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.