TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb9c5…67e0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 51 out of 100; worst Champions League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT2857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.8
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$20.3
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.2
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT+100%+$20
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.19
Mavericks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Heat vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Grizzlies vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$16.95
Knicks vs. Clippersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Nuggets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+69.5%+$21.19
Warriors vs. 76ersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Clippers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+150%+$98.77
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST+61.3%+$15.83
Spurs vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+72.4%+$22.82
Rockets vs. Hawksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+51.5%+$5.25
Lakers vs. 76ersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$23.73
Lakers vs. Hornetsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+49.3%+$7.83
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Celtics vs. Rocketsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+72.9%+$19.65
Celtics vs. Timberwolvesbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+58.7%+$14.8
Pacers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$55
Pistons vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+44.9%+$17.97
Knicks vs. Wizardsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+25%+$11.62
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.76
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$15.29
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will Manchester City win on 2025-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+37%+$28.44
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT+37.1%+$12.48
Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$26.75
Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$18.86
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$40.79
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.75
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.04
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$19.7
Will Newcastle United win the 2024 Carabao Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.07
Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+35.1%+$8.2
Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15.9
Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+40.8%+$8.66
Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$26.61
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+49.3%+$16.27
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$30.85
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+38.9%+$11.2
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+33.3%+$23.56
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$15.52
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Sep 30, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Putin talk by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$12.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$97.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $105k in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$43
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.