TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $105k in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$956,036
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,036,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $956,036 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc6ae…bd0abacked No3c123,217$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,332.91283.6%1 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-93.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes60c47,987$29,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,955.5687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf323…c700backed No24c35,995$8,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,554.862846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa40a…fa62backed Yes60c22,514$13,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,021.092445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes63c21,019$13,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,721.2663835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes36c19,956$7,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,817.521361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd69b…1ed8backed No38c18,419$7,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,034.894240.5%17 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+110%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1032…8f91backed Yes57c16,685$9,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,248.083847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x174e…b3c0backed Yes56c15,175$8,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,722.081471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No20c12,201$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.713831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked No21c11,706$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.824736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5637…1a14backed No9c10,962$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.58966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked No16c9,999$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf23…3f2ebacked No7c9,692$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.96560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+48.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4851…1e94backed No56c9,253$5,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,158.532548%12 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27ac…90debacked No62c8,589$5,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,298.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-51.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No15c8,553$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.423813.2%5 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked No12c8,411$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.372040%8 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-18.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed Yes62c7,906$4,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,012.462965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No25c7,749$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.78327.7%23 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No32c7,600$2,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,460.5910545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked No3c7,500$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.52532%8 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cbc…0a28backed No67c7,416$4,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,954.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47ee…7aa8backed No12c6,828$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.191612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-80.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe426…9766backed No58c6,705$3,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,906.8620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes57c5,890$3,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.2355032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No13c5,884$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.845639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes76c5,624$4,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.632045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes45c5,314$2,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,906.6537745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked No18c5,041$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.1315023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed No40c4,942$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.7112824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed No68c4,750$3,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,225.031866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No17c4,546$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.3764812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No17c4,074$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.8112736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9af…05adbacked No20c4,036$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.66018.3%11 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf388…7f67backed Yes50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0001070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1b3…942cbacked No38c3,913$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4911338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d2…2a56backed No58c3,765$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,188.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No46c3,610$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.989546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7768…161fbacked No56c3,545$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.391546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No22c3,193$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.019054.4%49 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f55…ce1bbacked No16c3,131$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-67.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed No16c3,125$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50034848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e0…7586backed No50c3,111$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.381833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No48c3,039$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.61850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No65c2,900$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.9913770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cee…f962backed Yes74c2,703$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.71442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd0…a0a1backed No53c2,687$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.664763.8%30 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc85a…8cd8backed No6c2,662$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-69.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddc3…23dfbacked No11c2,627$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.712213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a6f…4999backed Yes70c2,598$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90db…0e69backed No61c2,376$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.061241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed No4c2,290$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.524035%14 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c2,259$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.191,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No15c2,208$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.25662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae9…4894backed Yes47c2,110$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb362…7fddbacked Yes48c2,085$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabdc…49ffbacked No46c2,083$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.94639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a90…93bfbacked No55c2,000$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1081442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de0…9483backed No50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d1…fda8backed Yes34c1,963$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+162.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes78c1,958$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.6412259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes38c1,908$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.116642.4%28 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa289…b412backed Yes74c1,771$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.16575.4%49 W · 16 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+19.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa22b…d818backed No9c1,766$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd21…efdbbacked Yes34c1,756$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.845735.1%20 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x376b…f45abacked Yes45c1,730$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.82742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes47c1,684$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.971024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0401…aad0backed Yes57c1,679$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7223212.5%4 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8252…e65cbacked No26c1,617$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.122114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eec…3e48backed No14c1,606$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.841020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8417…7096backed No6c1,591$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c5c…05d0backed Yes66c1,525$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.763100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0f…f18ebacked No67c1,515$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe68…ae42backed No33c1,510$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.3955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6390…5ee8backed Yes72c1,503$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d5…74ecbacked No67c1,497$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed No18c1,361$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.031540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb93…45bfbacked No15c1,351$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8480…486ebacked Yes47c1,347$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes74c1,328$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.5316761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2763…7776backed No5c1,250$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.23633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce3c…5151backed No7c1,149$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9970%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No3c1,112$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.993013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No11c1,095$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.253164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed No51c1,084$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.962520%5 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-59.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84e9…6c53backed No67c1,009$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb37…fbacbacked No67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6702441.7%10 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb357…ff05backed No61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5452…26ecbacked No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c1…0586backed Yes39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6101844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No15c999.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1552766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa99f…852abacked No52c975$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e8…874fbacked No51c964.81$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.89850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3b4…4c64backed Yes52c962.2$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27bd…ba05backed No35c928.79$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked No64c875.29$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.193237.5%12 W · 20 L-11.2wins-0.35per pick72cpaid-50.3%equal weight28-0.20 edge/pick
0x94df…70dbbacked Yes74c782.8$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445a…7fc4backed No6c781.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.