Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3596e0850b7084194636759c918efa572879cc6b3a5c5889872061c4fbf5e031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,735,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,938,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,735,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45af…9158backed Yes | 4c | 53,412$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.3 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…676dbacked Yes | 4c | 26,728$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.64 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes | 6c | 22,232$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.53 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04f…a15abacked Yes | 7c | 16,973$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,528$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 14,218$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…46e5backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes | 1c | 9,800$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 5c | 7,564$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.22 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…80a2backed Yes | 4c | 7,078$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 4c | 6,979$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.05 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes | 7c | 6,427$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 5c | 5,369$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.16 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…5696backed Yes | 10c | 5,104$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…3e88backed Yes | 2c | 4,690$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 4c | 4,525$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.24 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed Yes | 5c | 4,422$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…402fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,190$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,037$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0150…4167backed Yes | 3c | 4,007$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 3,738$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 8c | 3,695$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.58 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…6227backed Yes | 3c | 3,509$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…59a0backed Yes | 5c | 3,266$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.58 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf1…b3afbacked Yes | 3c | 2,929$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes | 4c | 2,308$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…7a0abacked Yes | 3c | 2,201$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,938$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 8c | 1,738$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,672$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,304$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,125$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bab…364cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,046$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 4c | 844.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed Yes | 2c | 839.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 7c | 787$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a58…9a8abacked Yes | 3c | 743.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…4fcdbacked Yes | 2c | 723.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b2…7ee8backed Yes | 3c | 638.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4593…40d9backed Yes | 2c | 633$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…cd8bbacked Yes | 3c | 565$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…dcd0backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +10.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3515…e0a0backed Yes | 5c | 323$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7751…6d55backed Yes | 5c | 315.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…6c9dbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…e2c7backed Yes | 6c | 280$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…e691backed Yes | 8c | 205.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…614abacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…6127backed Yes | 6c | 169.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…57e5backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100k in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105k in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.