TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,748,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,288,555

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,748,066 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 862 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes14c283,735$40,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,744.121910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd02…aba7backed Yes26c240,457$61,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,847.276124.6%15 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes28c208,091$57,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,962.01283.6%1 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-93.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes40c204,434$80,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,848.3958126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b5…590cbacked No66c179,269$117,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,339.79580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes28c130,432$37,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,130.4487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes23c117,887$27,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,618.637745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60c3…9f87backed Yes26c81,376$21,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,213.8750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45af…9158backed Yes22c75,506$16,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,422.135514.5%8 W · 47 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xada5…a69ebacked Yes7c70,307$5,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,164.9670%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes26c58,428$14,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,971.5163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c54,084$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.371360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbf…1e6cbacked No76c51,150$38,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,514.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5637…1a14backed No63c49,991$31,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,305.89966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a7b…688bbacked Yes62c46,844$29,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,109.631643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9841…5189backed No60c40,814$24,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,464.14771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes17c40,324$6,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,847.5711316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes17c39,396$6,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,795.221024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa40a…fa62backed Yes30c38,371$11,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,473.32445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Yes25c34,231$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,4001050%5 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+67.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc394…fb0abacked Yes39c32,829$12,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,685.951361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed No76c32,345$24,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6671573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf4b…5e45backed Yes6c29,161$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.39714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd69b…1ed8backed Yes12c27,491$3,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,184.984240.5%17 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+110%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed No70c27,066$18,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,173.134242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked No80c26,239$20,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,293.07825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked No72c25,879$18,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,189.612142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd21…efdbbacked Yes23c25,196$5,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,765.15735.1%20 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked No75c24,118$18,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,108.641833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe700…7005backed No39c23,715$9,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,448.841478.6%11 W · 3 L+6.9wins+0.50per pick29cpaid+200.1%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes29c23,244$6,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,810.951216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-76.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes14c22,052$3,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,042.09425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c21,989$5,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,889.6364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Yes11c21,537$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.46613.6%9 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x905a…dff1backed No79c20,081$15,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,296.79955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa4…a7a1backed Yes6c19,890$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a6f…4999backed No69c18,166$12,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,586.731163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes12c15,949$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.312213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes16c15,003$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.561625%4 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7456…91e9backed No77c15,000$11,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes16c15,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No61c14,890$9,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,803.510545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No37c14,529$5,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,085.481776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+38.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x346c…a160backed No62c14,508$9,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,468.531952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes28c14,293$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes23c14,221$3,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,291.244736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x285c…3583backed No71c13,701$9,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,026.031172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Yes28c13,088$3,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,610.253053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d1…8c91backed Yes11c12,505$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.131926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66f…8e0cbacked No59c12,361$7,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,072.33683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No61c12,226$7,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,813.7212736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked No57c12,010$6,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,189.52532%8 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac92…9d64backed Yes26c12,000$3,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,098.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes13c11,846$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.371333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb6…2124backed Yes47c11,227$5,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,234.77728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4908…fd6cbacked Yes27c10,834$2,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,889.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d26…1819backed Yes51c10,787$5,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,526.34333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes29c10,785$3,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,138.0216761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a4d…3e88backed Yes1c10,703$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ee…7aa8backed No72c10,331$7,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.571612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-80.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Yes16c10,172$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.41637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50dd…9c04backed No47c9,666$4,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,091.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+71.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x288c…a41dbacked Yes20c9,076$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.042045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdda3…8afebacked No71c8,970$6,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,578.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc20e…0a5ebacked Yes14c8,365$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.983823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No73c8,131$5,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.376543.1%28 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Yes33c8,000$2,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,605250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes29c7,837$2,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,259.426527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4851…1e94backed Yes26c7,651$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.132548%12 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd099…60edbacked Yes23c7,476$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No55c7,381$4,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,285.45955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x592c…d7c0backed No68c7,370$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,369.53560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d5…74ecbacked No73c7,270$5,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca4…9837backed No67c7,100$4,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3323721.6%8 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa765…ec70backed Yes29c6,978$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6539…b05abacked Yes23c6,874$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes14c6,862$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.23214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick16cpaid-92.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No69c6,759$4,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.217642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed Yes56c6,724$3,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,765.442556%14 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1032…8f91backed Yes52c6,619$3,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,465.693847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes30c6,483$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.878619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4159…6c30backed Yes17c6,467$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.2214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-90.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes28c6,460$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.187020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes29c6,117$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.7155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9af…05adbacked Yes29c6,075$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.016018.3%11 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6178…f9a9backed Yes48c5,880$2,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,822.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes9c5,862$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.31195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf323…c700backed No66c5,799$3,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.412846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes18c5,788$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.8330%0 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked No76c5,760$4,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.164763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No67c5,701$3,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.024047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec5…6bcfbacked Yes16c5,652$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.39156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-90%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe46d…2224backed No73c5,480$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe7e…c200backed Yes59c5,310$3,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,154.0670%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes9c5,260$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.0625824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1bd…b9a1backed Yes12c5,154$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c2…10cebacked No38c5,069$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,156.172100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+115.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes24c5,020$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22515023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+189.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.