Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12fc2e334e4e16b266937550b782313cf4faef5f4be259145dabf1e7326f326c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,084,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,123,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,084,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 477 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes | 12c | 91,530$11,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,159 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed Yes | 1c | 62,435$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.71 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…59a0backed Yes | 13c | 35,300$4,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,575.44 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…80a2backed Yes | 10c | 32,479$3,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,394.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 17,497$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked No | 70c | 15,163$10,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,581.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…ee7bbacked No | 73c | 13,774$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,773.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb15…8569backed Yes | 8c | 12,566$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 2c | 11,935$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.96 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed Yes | 40c | 11,869$4,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,711.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…9158backed Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.53 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed No | 64c | 9,684$6,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450.68 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…8f91backed Yes | 24c | 9,245$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.01 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9841…5189backed No | 72c | 8,906$6,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,526.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 35c | 8,602$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.85 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…3291backed No | 76c | 8,139$6,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…1e94backed Yes | 32c | 7,802$2,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,528.23 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…3ed4backed No | 71c | 6,160$4,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…e0adbacked Yes | 10c | 6,089$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +590.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 62c | 5,672$3,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.45 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes | 0c | 4,999$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 21c | 4,866$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.52 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes | 9c | 4,477$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.07 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 27c | 4,373$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.6 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…402fbacked Yes | 19c | 4,280$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.49 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 27c | 4,222$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.2 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 11c | 3,994$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.86 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…f388backed Yes | 8c | 3,846$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +221.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf323…c700backed No | 78c | 3,761$2,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.46 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Yes | 16c | 3,750$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed No | 70c | 3,655$2,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.5 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 24c | 3,500$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…c0e9backed Yes | 1c | 3,419$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed Yes | 10c | 3,410$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…cec6backed Yes | 5c | 3,139$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…f953backed Yes | 4c | 3,136$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 32c | 3,116$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.15 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…05adbacked Yes | 16c | 3,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed No | 63c | 2,958$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.46 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed No | 65c | 2,844$1,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.37 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…6bcfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,454$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -90%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 66c | 2,400$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.4 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,309$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 28c | 2,221$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.89 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…9837backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.11 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 6c | 1,931$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.26 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed Yes | 5c | 1,800$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2cf1backed No | 80c | 1,590$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.98 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 37c | 1,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a08…9513backed Yes | 34c | 1,469$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,383$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 17c | 1,377$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.94 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,358$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf0…562abacked Yes | 1c | 1,293$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…d611backed No | 68c | 1,225$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…e179backed Yes | 9c | 1,222$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7b…688bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,221$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0820…7b85backed Yes | 3c | 1,212$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd321…a77fbacked No | 68c | 1,108$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.56 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b8…f1edbacked Yes | 9c | 1,088$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 66c | 1,079$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…7f3dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4b…5e45backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 27c | 990.59$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.24 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf1…b3afbacked Yes | 13c | 944.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9914backed Yes | 3c | 939.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…6127backed Yes | 18c | 919.97$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…eb78backed Yes | 38c | 877.34$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…ee0bbacked Yes | 3c | 850$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097e…b149backed Yes | 36c | 840$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…ea9abacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 64c | 782.8$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.8 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…f2fabacked No | 70c | 714$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…05e5backed No | 72c | 555.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…f4f2backed No | 73c | 549.81$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fe…9b8abacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…096fbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes | 19c | 473.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 4c | 461.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed No | 76c | 461.05$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 443.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…accebacked Yes | 4c | 425.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…dcd0backed Yes | 35c | 420$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed No | 75c | 411$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…1eeabacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 22c | 323.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…a871backed Yes | 36c | 312.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…823cbacked Yes | 20c | 309.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…2d2cbacked Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 11c | 287.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 103 | 0%0 W · 103 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes | 29c | 280$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +10.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100k in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105k in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.