TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,084,388
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,123,050

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,084,388 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 477 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes12c91,530$11,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,159283.6%1 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-93.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd02…aba7backed Yes1c62,435$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.716124.6%15 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f5…59a0backed Yes13c35,300$4,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,575.442317.4%4 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb068…80a2backed Yes10c32,479$3,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,394.411338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c17,497$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked No70c15,163$10,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,581.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1a…ee7bbacked No73c13,774$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,773.81683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+64.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb15…8569backed Yes8c12,566$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes2c11,935$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.96180%0 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes40c11,869$4,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,711.11662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45af…9158backed Yes18c10,000$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.535514.5%8 W · 47 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed No64c9,684$6,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,450.6812824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1032…8f91backed Yes24c9,245$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.013847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9841…5189backed No72c8,906$6,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,526.36771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes35c8,602$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.858619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…3291backed No76c8,139$6,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,917.211553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick71cpaid-29.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4851…1e94backed Yes32c7,802$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,528.232548%12 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc28…3ed4backed No71c6,160$4,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4068…e0adbacked Yes10c6,089$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+590.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes2c6,000$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.59825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed No62c5,672$3,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.4534848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes0c4,999$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13310%0 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes21c4,866$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.5255032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes9c4,477$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.072213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes27c4,373$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d1…402fbacked Yes19c4,280$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.49175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-62.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes27c4,222$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.237745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes11c3,994$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.8611316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc302…f388backed Yes8c3,846$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002326.1%6 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+221.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf323…c700backed No78c3,761$2,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.462846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x610d…188bbacked Yes16c3,750$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed No70c3,655$2,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.525824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes8c3,500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes24c3,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84015023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb8…c0e9backed Yes1c3,419$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.164017.5%7 W · 33 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b3a…8938backed Yes10c3,410$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.52218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5a…cec6backed Yes5c3,139$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b1a…f953backed Yes4c3,136$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes32c3,116$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.152623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9af…05adbacked Yes16c3,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4706018.3%11 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed No63c2,958$1,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.461866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb3…92e2backed No65c2,844$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.371478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+59.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ec5…6bcfbacked Yes2c2,454$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-90%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cd0…a0a1backed No66c2,400$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.44763.8%30 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes4c2,309$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.622119%4 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes28c2,221$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.8928021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca4…9837backed Yes12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403721.6%8 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.1164812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes6c1,931$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.266527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…3e59backed Yes5c1,800$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a1…2cf1backed No80c1,590$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.98887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick74cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes37c1,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.997020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a08…9513backed Yes34c1,469$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c1,383$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.053013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes17c1,377$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.948327.7%23 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,358$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf0…562abacked Yes1c1,293$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20e1…d611backed No68c1,225$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9051…e179backed Yes9c1,222$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a7b…688bbacked Yes8c1,221$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.711643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0820…7b85backed Yes3c1,212$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-62.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked No68c1,108$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.564763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes9c1,100$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b8…f1edbacked Yes9c1,088$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No66c1,079$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36610545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003813.2%5 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes5c1,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.192416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3955…7f3dbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf4b…5e45backed Yes3c999.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes27c990.59$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.2487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf1…b3afbacked Yes13c944.11$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd4…9914backed Yes3c939.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb74…6127backed Yes18c919.97$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1885…eb78backed Yes38c877.34$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.26862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ce…ee0bbacked Yes3c850$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x097e…b149backed Yes36c840$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.41020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab59…ea9abacked Yes5c800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No64c782.8$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.89054.4%49 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked No70c714$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.25240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddbc…05e5backed No72c555.56$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b90…f4f2backed No73c549.81$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29fe…9b8abacked No78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc59…096fbacked No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501060%6 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes19c473.17$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.647229.2%21 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes4c461.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.982615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e63…7e29backed No76c461.05$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.051030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c443.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6211619%22 W · 94 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-62%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x295d…accebacked Yes4c425.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.72147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a96…dcd0backed Yes35c420$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14770%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc430…3c45backed No75c411$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.85850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70e…1eeabacked Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes22c323.48$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.117540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1d…a871backed Yes36c312.86$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100160%0 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4093…823cbacked Yes20c309.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b33…2d2cbacked Yes3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes11c287.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321030%0 W · 103 L-7.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes29c280$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.27949.4%39 W · 40 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.