Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80a4e4b098c992662461cc1d791a62c7846cfb697ebf05b562e70815a5d4506c

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 1, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $667,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $670,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $667,150 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbd02…aba7backed Yes	1c	34,757$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.72	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-56%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes	11c	26,829$3,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,009.51	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	16cpaid	-93.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x45af…9158backed Yes	8c	21,999$1,788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,788.18	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08f5…59a0backed Yes	5c	21,780$1,157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,156.79	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb068…80a2backed Yes	5c	19,311$1,006 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.24	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.14per pick	24cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes	0c	16,997$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	136	0%0 W · 136 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93f8…f5c3backed Yes	0c	16,644$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes	0c	15,769$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.81	229	0%0 W · 229 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1619…fcc0backed Yes	7c	13,482$1,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001.54	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xebb2…b265backed Yes	4c	10,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.12per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	11c	7,777$889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$888.8	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes	13c	7,000$930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$929.96	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04f…a15abacked Yes	15c	6,751$1,013 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,013.36	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes	17c	5,532$932 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$931.89	86	19.8%17 W · 69 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3a…8938backed Yes	5c	4,930$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.23	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes	14c	4,572$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.16	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes	15c	4,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	150	23.3%35 W · 115 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	8c	3,889$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.12	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes	1c	3,870$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.21	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd27d…6227backed Yes	6c	3,333$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a08…9513backed Yes	16c	3,106$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes	10c	2,995$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.16	550	32.5%179 W · 371 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes	2c	2,855$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.95	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes	5c	2,746$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.31	258	24%62 W · 196 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes	14c	2,611$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.48	581	26.9%156 W · 425 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2c…8a38backed Yes	4c	2,580$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.79	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36d1…402fbacked Yes	7c	2,580$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.3	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes	16c	2,500$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	70	20%14 W · 56 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes	3c	2,497$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.42	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes	3c	2,235$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.21	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca4…9837backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-4.9wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes	3c	1,993$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.81	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes	9c	1,962$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.79	83	27.7%23 W · 60 L	-7.7wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bf1…b3afbacked Yes	6c	1,916$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes	2c	1,841$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.63	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes	1c	1,833$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.33	120	20%24 W · 96 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+43.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a7b…688bbacked Yes	4c	1,701$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.43	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Yes	6c	1,639$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.96	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e1…7a0abacked Yes	3c	1,392$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.52	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…e0bbbacked Yes	3c	1,200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25ff…7977backed Yes	7c	1,140$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes	8c	1,081$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.54	72	29.2%21 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a96…dcd0backed Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffff…3455backed Yes	3c	772.31$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2bc…5866backed Yes	3c	727.27$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44eb…e691backed Yes	19c	630.25$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	562.71$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.41	648	12%78 W · 570 L	-61.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes	6c	540$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.3	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc36b…c38dbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	13cpaid	+108.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03c0…14c1backed Yes	4c	456$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc394…fb0abacked Yes	9c	384.13$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.27	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes	9c	342.05$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.36	113	16.8%19 W · 94 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c9…dd97backed Yes	6c	337.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7751…6d55backed Yes	10c	309.52$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	151	9.9%15 W · 136 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	79	49.4%39 W · 40 L	+10.2wins	+0.13per pick	36cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes	6c	283.47$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	103	0%0 W · 103 L	-7.9wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b3e…662cbacked Yes	6c	279.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.02	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02b2…7ee8backed Yes	9c	233.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb74…6127backed Yes	13c	179.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5824…9b7abacked Yes	18c	150$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-20%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…3d66backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	41cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8d3…cc60backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4640…7137backed Yes	14c	98.81$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+4.3wins	+0.27per pick	36cpaid	+108%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes	16c	98.06$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	305	31.1%95 W · 210 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b8b…3a52backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May?this page
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in May?Yes won
Will Bitcoin reach $105k in May?Yes won
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?Yes won
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event