TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,925,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,372,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,925,264 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes2c5,501,377$92,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,050.841010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-83.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes14c133,309$19,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,060.51283.6%1 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-93.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No72c127,445$91,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,497.975662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f5…59a0backed Yes23c115,343$27,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,056.022317.4%4 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes12c111,407$13,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,654.81425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c110,006$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.21360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd69b…1ed8backed No43c72,800$31,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,444.524240.5%17 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+110%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb068…80a2backed Yes11c68,918$7,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,362.981338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes58c53,230$30,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,863.041662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No66c52,959$34,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,153.4637745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ce…f646backed Yes70c52,380$36,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,420.71662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf323…c700backed No73c48,680$35,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,017.292846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe7e…c200backed Yes2c40,348$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.0370%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45af…9158backed Yes9c40,051$3,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,576.95514.5%8 W · 47 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x19a8…8c31backed Yes71c30,167$21,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,404.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa40a…fa62backed No68c27,173$18,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,573.562445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x647f…2f74backed Yes27c26,891$7,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,374.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a7b…688bbacked No44c25,251$11,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,098.361643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes2c25,029$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.81214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick16cpaid-92.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfbf…1e6cbacked Yes14c23,902$3,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,354.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed No38c23,772$9,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,715.6612824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes1c23,683$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed No72c22,362$16,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,241.263835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…1e55backed Yes3c20,450$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.580%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Yes15c20,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes11c19,432$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes17c19,266$3,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,275.191330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0401…aad0backed Yes5c19,005$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.913212.5%4 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked No73c18,294$13,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,959.774736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaee3…4772backed Yes4c16,547$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48be…99d7backed Yes20c15,419$3,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,013.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed Yes2c14,845$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0820…7b85backed Yes4c12,493$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.21520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-62.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes10c12,178$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.442213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed No74c12,105$8,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.7225824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9af…05adbacked Yes20c11,000$2,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,181.656018.3%11 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked No45c10,874$4,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,948.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1032…8f91backed Yes19c10,639$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.073847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x583a…80eebacked Yes5c10,144$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a3…7921backed Yes63c10,035$6,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,343.3425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x231e…571bbacked Yes50c10,009$5,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,004.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ad…c636backed Yes65c9,773$6,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,352.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick70cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes1c9,707$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.12152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc652…bbc4backed Yes50c9,256$4,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,666.23425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae4…dce7backed Yes57c9,171$5,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,227.47425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d1…402fbacked Yes6c9,090$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.47175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-62.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes57c9,000$5,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1301931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes23c9,000$2,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.815023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x804f…5eb1backed Yes4c8,044$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b22…bcf6backed Yes0c8,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ab…ed31backed No79c7,892$6,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,657.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8f…a613backed Yes61c7,690$4,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,689.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked No80c7,645$6,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,552.944763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7012…4035backed Yes66c7,306$4,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,821.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick60cpaid-53.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6d2…2a56backed Yes17c7,285$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes2c6,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.99270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes59c5,812$3,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.081450%7 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x135c…e7cdbacked Yes1c5,722$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f8…f5c3backed Yes2c5,411$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa9a…de87backed Yes2c5,099$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…d271backed Yes1c5,041$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x34bb…9669backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes9c4,534$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.446527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes23c4,139$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.438327.7%23 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes3c4,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302532%8 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes59c3,937$2,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,314.991513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-48.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes30c3,883$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.7458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes35c3,616$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.368619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46d1…2005backed Yes53c3,600$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5d5…d9ebbacked Yes55c3,475$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a96…dcd0backed Yes3c3,374$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed No27c3,366$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,470.5916761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No53c3,302$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.29546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes31c3,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a4d…3e88backed Yes4c3,161$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd911…d283backed Yes2c3,135$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No76c3,080$2,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7482766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9606417.2%11 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+163.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf8e…97adbacked Yes3c3,000$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb36…09f3backed Yes52c2,944$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.18742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c2,746$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.0264812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x14ff…4636backed Yes3c2,700$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x877f…7acbbacked No48c2,600$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3521580%12 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+57.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa1d7…2b75backed Yes9c2,580$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c47…2e2ebacked No42c2,546$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02b2…7ee8backed Yes1c2,519$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes1c2,500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-81.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc33…d2f0backed Yes28c2,500$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a37…712abacked No77c2,455$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.543100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc36b…c38dbacked Yes13c2,450$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201926.3%5 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+108.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes2c2,431$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No76c2,424$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.597642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes5c2,380$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.84825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x259a…991dbacked Yes3c2,222$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed No80c2,127$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.952528%7 W · 18 L-6.0wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-46.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x231c…c7b5backed Yes2c2,052$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb74…6127backed Yes38c2,051$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ac3…3189backed Yes19c2,051$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.