TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$391,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$401,850

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,981 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0cd5…b4bbbacked Yes67c25,871$17,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,575.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b9…3883backed No0c24,483$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc966…8cc8backed No15c22,000$3,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,22310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes79c19,058$14,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,079.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked No19c17,710$3,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,358.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ca…7229backed No17c17,608$2,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,915.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba5…6d1bbacked No32c15,490$5,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No17c13,945$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No20c12,588$2,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa722…4dbfbacked No31c12,307$3,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,846.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ef6…7f32backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf22b…0510backed Yes80c10,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6d…3b61backed No13c8,862$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes79c7,333$5,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.31580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f22…a19fbacked No23c5,859$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54af…bbfabacked No20c5,736$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f93…355bbacked No18c5,510$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb292…dcb7backed No23c4,240$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58e…6245backed No20c3,644$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes80c3,641$2,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca43…a36dbacked No19c3,493$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd7…9a0bbacked No15c3,362$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…0db1backed No19c3,150$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdfc…288cbacked No22c2,700$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228f…c7f7backed No26c2,634$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0204…304fbacked No15c2,567$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97d2…e372backed No14c2,500$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No12c2,412$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.03742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc28…3ed4backed No23c2,307$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b2d…f0d4backed No23c2,232$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No23c2,189$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No19c2,075$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked No17c2,018$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533f…2ef1backed Yes76c2,001$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed No20c2,000$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes79c1,962$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No10c1,900$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x740b…b5ddbacked Yes75c1,860$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1822…c237backed No20c1,796$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d5…8d1abacked Yes79c1,783$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb3…2b1fbacked No21c1,712$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No19c1,628$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.4927429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c0…ecc6backed No17c1,615$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6490…16a0backed No23c1,614$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No20c1,565$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes76c1,500$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb7…3573backed No22c1,500$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No21c1,362$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No19c1,324$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed No21c1,317$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204e…04ffbacked No7c1,305$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a39…5077backed Yes78c1,300$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…a464backed No23c1,281$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6bc…c645backed Yes79c1,280$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d6…24aabacked No16c1,216$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No21c1,190$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda94…27e8backed No20c1,140$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0681…f713backed No26c1,139$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6bf…5969backed No18c1,120$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…0b3ebacked No22c1,116$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6401…a0c8backed No19c1,110$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb18…1299backed No23c1,088$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5000…02a3backed No19c1,062$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d3…4e5ebacked No21c1,050$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked No8c1,020$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d70…cd72backed No20c1,018$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked No24c1,000$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef86…25d0backed No20c999.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No13c999.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9956548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef5…ff17backed No21c992.7$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No7c980.44$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.189124.2%22 W · 69 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfcd…009ebacked No19c963.46$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No20c937.1$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7046…80febacked No21c922.76$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No17c900$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab5f…aab9backed Yes79c894.2$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd369…9e8ebacked No16c882.14$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47c…c5b8backed No12c867.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf08d…9faebacked No23c864.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No18c834.4$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28eb…516abacked No24c829.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4354…b65bbacked No21c749.99$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes72c742.15$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7244…e693backed No21c714.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ec…3344backed No29c700.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No8c700.17$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.521820.2%44 W · 174 L-22.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6a4…abc9backed No15c681.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No21c677.81$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.786338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No17c613.63$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No21c606.19$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0b…2341backed No16c591.4$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes77c587.4$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.93666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4fa…647dbacked Yes79c565.88$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb54a…c622backed No18c556.3$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked No9c546.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes79c545.77$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7799…ad20backed Yes79c521.67$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No19c518.71$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x641a…1ee2backed No21c500$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No16c500$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.31520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.