Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dfbd6f6ef6e7240d9ee77fabb97ae7a85cee40f26d9db8372a150dbe456e5e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41e7…de49backed No | 76c | 140,000$106,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,600 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…56a0backed Yes | 24c | 139,967$33,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,592 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 74c | 16,737$12,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,422.98 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…db97backed Yes | 28c | 16,179$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 25c | 12,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…49c3backed Yes | 28c | 10,375$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,905 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed No | 72c | 9,461$6,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 7,020$5,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.2 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…d2b9backed Yes | 28c | 3,571$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 3,418$2,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.85 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 308 | 51.3%158 W · 150 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed No | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…8d67backed Yes | 27c | 1,852$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 73c | 1,800$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 70c | 1,739$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.84 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.11 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 1,292$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.96 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked No | 70c | 1,212$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…302fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,100$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 328 | 22.3%73 W · 255 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…1395backed Yes | 26c | 756.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…8ce7backed Yes | 23c | 677$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.71 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…c378backed No | 76c | 522.99$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked No | 74c | 450$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 73c | 438$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 72c | 401.15$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 348.96$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 25c | 316.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…b5cbbacked No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…6e0ebacked Yes | 25c | 268$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…395ebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 26c | 171.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 162$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 24c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…018bbacked Yes | 27c | 149.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…b720backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 72c | 137.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…2256backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 73c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…4dc6backed No | 77c | 117.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…f6cfbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 74c | 71.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…1cd8backed Yes | 28c | 60.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…176bbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Yes | 26c | 47.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…f868backed Yes | 27c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…67e0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked No | 75c | 37.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 209 | 58.9%123 W · 86 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed No | 75c | 19.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9e…15e3backed No | 76c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-05?this page
- Will Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?No won
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.