Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dba274b16890102020d79e838a9fe0dd0ccc9ae33f271a9f67be011f1fc4fb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa004…5c79backed Yes | 27c | 10,025$2,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,706.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…7920backed Yes | 27c | 10,012$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c21…6abbbacked Yes | 27c | 10,008$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…c541backed No | 73c | 10,005$7,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da9…9a22backed No | 73c | 10,002$7,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…34d8backed No | 73c | 9,999$7,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 26c | 1,867$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.34 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 73c | 1,140$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.38 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…1395backed Yes | 27c | 730.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed No | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 78c | 666.14$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.65 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 11c | 375.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df8…5332backed Yes | 34c | 261.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed No | 71c | 260$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…55b5backed Yes | 26c | 193.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 169.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 27c | 135$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 24c | 125.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 122.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 76c | 105.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…395ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…c25ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-05?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.