Ukraine · resolved market
Trump x Putin talk by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf882b0d63becc41ea3a990d42e137728f4cdb147cc373321075c5dfa8cdaffa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 25c | 4,773$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.21 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 73c | 3,366$2,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 2,224$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 28c | 2,172$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed No | 79c | 1,267$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.55 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,133$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 3c | 900$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 70c | 759.63$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.83 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 72c | 726.38$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 79c | 725.22$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…0b46backed No | 75c | 667.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 12c | 474.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…618cbacked Yes | 21c | 255$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddd…76b2backed No | 80c | 230.72$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 22c | 222$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 72c | 220$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed No | 65c | 183.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 137.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…b357backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…549bbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 17c | 120.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 80c | 109$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 104.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…f66abacked No | 78c | 95.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 84.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0106…d233backed Yes | 25c | 78.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…2577backed Yes | 27c | 74.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…1deebacked Yes | 19c | 74.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…8a0cbacked No | 80c | 73.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 18c | 73.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…8511backed No | 77c | 71.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 25c | 57.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…67e0backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…bbfbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d69…d6f1backed No | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked No | 70c | 42.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7237…9a27backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.