AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e94c0dca0ab6750d3a8f772a19fe5910c63f1daa117be14eba13a27f77899ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $292,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc055…1299backed Yes | 0c | 57,923$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 5c | 10,172$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.98 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 1c | 9,170$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes | 6c | 8,603$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.59 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…6b44backed Yes | 6c | 8,311$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 8c | 7,427$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 10c | 3,902$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.54 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 3,661$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes | 8c | 2,935$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.93 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 2,450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 6c | 2,350$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,307$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,333$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…6fadbacked Yes | 2c | 1,079$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5776…b9c4backed Yes | 6c | 923.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +619%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…c8cfbacked Yes | 14c | 888.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 7c | 865.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…3ce1backed Yes | 9c | 600.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 520.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 6c | 474.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 17c | 468.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…cf97backed Yes | 7c | 455$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…1b02backed Yes | 3c | 450$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +310.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 4c | 350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…3cc8backed Yes | 7c | 298.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…7fd4backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…9352backed Yes | 4c | 246.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…67e0backed Yes | 8c | 242.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 11c | 231.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 6c | 222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1674…1656backed Yes | 6c | 166.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…e209backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 43c | 93.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…8441backed No | 52c | 73.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.