AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22365542802d2cd69be3de67a9a647b3ad313a7e9cbcf8d748f7aa8fdb3fd33c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 3c | 10,442$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.51 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 5c | 5,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 7c | 4,460$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.76 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed No | 6c | 3,679$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 7c | 2,307$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.28 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked No | 11c | 1,311$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.29 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…f001backed No | 8c | 1,270$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 3c | 1,107$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 6c | 1,058$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked No | 9c | 1,034$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…a81cbacked No | 7c | 999.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +242.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 869.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 7c | 809.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 721.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…bb40backed No | 4c | 568.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed No | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 7c | 275.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 9c | 213.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked No | 7c | 201.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9d…35c4backed No | 8c | 171$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f74…c875backed No | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 19c | 92.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.