AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48aac5b60cf6b062d1f49e161f4e2193dfc6212ae060f53a7f27aea0c543d813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 1c | 20,458$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 18,578$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ade…ff49backed Yes | 0c | 10,363$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 1c | 5,800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5584…6e2abacked Yes | 1c | 5,353$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 5,063$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,524$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed Yes | 1c | 2,911$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,273$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +310.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf764…26e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,703$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,586$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 1c | 1,368$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,296$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,178$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.