Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7463e08aa8ba471d371eab3be191fe80f638c40c5ba1ba3502e52b6fee1dff1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cf9…9d9fbacked Yes | 59c | 5,517$3,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…9ac0backed Yes | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…7934backed No | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…d698backed Yes | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4719backed No | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7246…a3dbbacked Yes | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…aabfbacked No | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…7fa0backed Yes | 56c | 4,000$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…45f2backed No | 41c | 3,490$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 51c | 2,508$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.48 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc5…78c6backed No | 45c | 2,503$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 39c | 2,240$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.74 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 45c | 1,988$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 42c | 1,958$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.35 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 51c | 1,931$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…e147backed No | 44c | 1,723$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 60c | 1,567$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 59c | 1,500$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 54c | 1,295$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 35c | 1,183$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed No | 44c | 901.86$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 39c | 805.26$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.54 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes | 62c | 788.89$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 40c | 777.18$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.08 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 37c | 767.09$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 44c | 621.89$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4758…a4b3backed No | 54c | 578.53$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Yes | 54c | 560.89$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…269bbacked Yes | 54c | 552.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 45c | 543.11$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 59c | 505.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Yes | 55c | 500$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 55c | 499.64$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked Yes | 56c | 498.5$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 54c | 496.52$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.98 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 16c | 468$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562d…db7dbacked No | 46c | 452.17$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 42c | 447$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…d0c6backed No | 46c | 442.65$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 46c | 433.33$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 403.6$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.02 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 47c | 400$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 52c | 399.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a39…2570backed Yes | 56c | 387$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 53c | 382$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 42c | 379.33$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.36 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 47c | 352.89$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad5…8f07backed No | 76c | 341.27$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…1959backed Yes | 61c | 328.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 55c | 320.92$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…faaebacked No | 48c | 320$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d4…83bbbacked No | 38c | 300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…b69dbacked Yes | 56c | 299$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 46c | 292.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.05 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 40c | 289.48$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.79 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…f3ffbacked Yes | 55c | 281.71$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…4f72backed Yes | 53c | 271$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked No | 44c | 268.63$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 45c | 252.45$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…fe50backed No | 47c | 247.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked No | 47c | 236.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 42c | 232.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…aef0backed No | 47c | 229$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4d…ebccbacked No | 47c | 227$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed No | 45c | 223.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8313…3077backed No | 47c | 222$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…c488backed No | 47c | 219.14$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ed…86c4backed No | 47c | 219$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…5aadbacked No | 47c | 218.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…6ceabacked Yes | 53c | 218.87$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…cd19backed No | 47c | 218.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…ae63backed Yes | 53c | 215.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…513ebacked No | 47c | 214.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…a1fcbacked Yes | 53c | 213$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe2…87dabacked No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc567…ade4backed Yes | 53c | 212$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…4314backed No | 47c | 211$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a4…20bebacked Yes | 53c | 209.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 43c | 209.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 59c | 208.14$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 54c | 206.17$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked No | 41c | 204.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0653…e566backed Yes | 53c | 201.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…6adabacked No | 38c | 201.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd558…2de7backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…d070backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4f…ca22backed Yes | 53c | 198.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d4…3b1dbacked Yes | 53c | 198.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…b559backed Yes | 53c | 198$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…334abacked Yes | 52c | 194.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…6c0dbacked Yes | 53c | 193$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 191.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…b078backed Yes | 53c | 189$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 38c | 187.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…917fbacked Yes | 54c | 184.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.