Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ff1c4f265478edffbfcd0232c707a49f6b094b28d4ebdafd476300fabb79fee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x069a…9ac0backed Yes | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4719backed Yes | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7246…a3dbbacked No | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…aabfbacked No | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…9d9fbacked No | 24c | 3,020$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 77c | 1,570$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.74 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked No | 21c | 1,549$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 25c | 1,330$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 18c | 1,107$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 77c | 1,020$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.54 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 13c | 570.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 19c | 558$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 76c | 510$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Yes | 79c | 508.44$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…d0c6backed No | 20c | 506.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 77c | 391.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…faaebacked No | 25c | 390$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…1959backed Yes | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 20c | 320$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 24c | 300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…9c61backed Yes | 76c | 270$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 75c | 251.45$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 62c | 218.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 213.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…a832backed No | 24c | 203.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 23c | 197$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 78c | 165$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…d1bfbacked No | 19c | 161.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e1…db4dbacked Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…45f2backed Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86ea…448cbacked No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf420…cf06backed Yes | 73c | 136.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 18c | 109.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…2a44backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…d038backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 24c | 98.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…61a1backed Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af4…17adbacked No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…3f9fbacked Yes | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…983fbacked No | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed No | 20c | 70.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e02…add2backed No | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6679…cccabacked Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…0fb8backed No | 21c | 69.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee72…e4c0backed Yes | 77c | 65.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…b69dbacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe615…a6a7backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c8…4df7backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7d…6b8fbacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…04ffbacked No | 19c | 54.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…1134backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…a962backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c8…b9efbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…29edbacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…55dcbacked Yes | 77c | 37.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 79c | 35.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 75c | 33.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…647fbacked Yes | 78c | 32.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265e…4070backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…f0f9backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Yes | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…e200backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 79c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 76c | 23.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 71c | 22.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 72c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca8…2a45backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a9…1e1dbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638f…c4ecbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4c…3581backed Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…e07abacked Yes | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 76c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.