Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd963c0014b767b9164953835f4bbc2de5594a98515952b6b639aa7a4e6f45303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x069a…9ac0backed Yes | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4719backed Yes | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7246…a3dbbacked No | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…aabfbacked No | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed No | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 13c | 1,226$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.08 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked No | 17c | 902.09$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…d0c6backed No | 20c | 783.25$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 19c | 766.63$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…45f2backed No | 18c | 724.26$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 16c | 700.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 15c | 665.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 18c | 600$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 77c | 596.29$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…4f72backed No | 12c | 564.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed No | 29c | 554.33$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 19c | 536.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x379d…54efbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed No | 18c | 395.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 354.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 310.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 17c | 265.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc700…6b58backed No | 19c | 256.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…113ebacked Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5230…e16cbacked No | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked No | 18c | 224.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 69c | 218.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes | 74c | 184.66$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6602…4559backed No | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…67d7backed No | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 146.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 20c | 138.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Yes | 79c | 133.32$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 17c | 129.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 18c | 123.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa72…1285backed No | 16c | 117.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…0fb8backed No | 15c | 112.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1654…9f63backed No | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…a832backed No | 21c | 105.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 19c | 71.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6050…80d6backed No | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed No | 26c | 69.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…04ffbacked No | 17c | 64.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 77c | 51.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…0985backed No | 20c | 50.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…f427backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…a962backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…0de9backed Yes | 79c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.