Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3176db447b011c424c3470532c4bbb48d749dc0e4329ac5779043699e4d3f343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $513,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $876,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $513,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97d2…e372backed No | 2c | 10,126$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…8669backed No | 6c | 6,864$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked No | 3c | 5,401$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 4c | 4,513$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.28 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986f…cac8backed No | 6c | 4,377$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 4,238$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked No | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 4c | 2,575$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 4c | 2,566$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…801bbacked No | 5c | 2,030$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb6…077dbacked No | 8c | 1,950$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…faaebacked No | 5c | 1,740$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…a45fbacked No | 7c | 1,680$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 3c | 1,574$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…917fbacked No | 7c | 1,522$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 2c | 1,480$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…5997backed No | 9c | 1,467$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…3090backed No | 15c | 1,435$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 8c | 1,401$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9346backed No | 7c | 1,350$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 3c | 1,250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked No | 6c | 1,231$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e31…e92bbacked No | 4c | 1,182$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed No | 4c | 1,149$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed No | 5c | 1,140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed No | 3c | 1,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…3eebbacked No | 4c | 1,070$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 3c | 948.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ec…2ef2backed No | 6c | 927.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01b…73f4backed No | 4c | 855.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…0af2backed No | 6c | 833.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed No | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…d382backed No | 6c | 769.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…5ad1backed No | 7c | 759.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 4c | 748.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 674.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked No | 4c | 649.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…78e9backed No | 3c | 632.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 6c | 563.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…2399backed No | 6c | 446.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked No | 4c | 444.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de6…c20ebacked No | 7c | 382.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae3…9387backed No | 6c | 368.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69e…0b82backed No | 7c | 361.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 3c | 358.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe186…79e9backed No | 3c | 350.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae85…efd2backed No | 4c | 333.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…c841backed No | 5c | 313.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e23…e24cbacked No | 6c | 304.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4f…640bbacked No | 7c | 304.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…4f72backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18af…f909backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 3c | 299.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed No | 7c | 290.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371d…4eafbacked No | 5c | 278.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…1aa6backed No | 7c | 259.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5706…44acbacked No | 4c | 258.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…5cf8backed No | 6c | 243.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…b715backed No | 9c | 233.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.