TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc726…c39a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
119
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Boxing, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 54 out of 100; worst NFL at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT2240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+92.4%+$181.55
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.62
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,956Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+51.1%+$1,000.46
Trump x Xi talk by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.86
54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.91
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$248.25
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.78
Big Balls removed from DOGE in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$73.94
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+49.3%+$10
Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+56.5%+$157.84
Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+71.6%+$38.48
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+316.7%+$59.64
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$1,248.27
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$126
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$402Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$402.29
Will Trump pick Ken Paxton for Director of the FBI?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2024, EST-100%-$70.76
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$44.04
Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$416.56
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+60.1%+$49.56
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$556Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$556
Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+447.1%+$1,212.13
Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+86.4%+$54.7
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT2138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.94
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$64.57
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.9
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+141.9%+$85.16
Nets vs. Warriorsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST+525%+$420
Clippers vs. Celticsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$84
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2024, EST+37.5%+$5.18
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2024, EST+99.2%+$71.8
Hawks vs. Kingsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+203%+$42.01
Magic vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$138
Rockets vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+400%+$80
Bulls vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$19
Nets vs. Knicksbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$44
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$185.4
Suns vs. Timberwolvesbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$206.2
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST+35.4%+$130.77
Raptors vs. Celticsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$65
Lakers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$59.18
All 21 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST100%0 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$165.05
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$41.8
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$29.04
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$40.29
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Bengals vs. Chargersbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$26
Jaguars vs. Lionsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$21.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$60.65
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.59
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$10.15
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$95.29
Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+900%+$130.86
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$170.5
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$20.4
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+117.4%+$20.5
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$17.24
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+216.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.24
Oilers vs. Panthersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$24.5
Oilers vs. Starsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Jets vs. Starsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Kings vs. Oilersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.88
All 5 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2024, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+84.6%+$27.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$119.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$194.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$752Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$752.41
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.