Us Politics · resolved market
Trump x Xi talk by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aac8192f435898eaf494f81bf07656c3711c2f2fe0294dab853f584a7ff8033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 19,113$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…d95bbacked Yes | 6c | 8,798$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 10c | 8,715$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.22 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67d…9cafbacked Yes | 6c | 7,806$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes | 10c | 7,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 14c | 5,500$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 15c | 5,174$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.62 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 23c | 4,444$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…12c9backed Yes | 9c | 3,332$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed Yes | 16c | 2,973$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.51 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…0584backed Yes | 3c | 2,723$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 14c | 2,344$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.24 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 6c | 2,164$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 9c | 1,350$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847d…13d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,258$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,124$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 3c | 1,087$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa496…37b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,085$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…5d40backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 39c | 999.99$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 79c | 894.42$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.83 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 12c | 739.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 21c | 699.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 68c | 689.24$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.48 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 60c | 616$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…dbd2backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 9c | 552$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 549.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 12c | 549$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…e2f8backed Yes | 4c | 543.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…3383backed Yes | 13c | 500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed Yes | 7c | 492.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 4c | 476.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 400.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 3c | 399.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 74c | 350$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 61c | 347.65$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.16 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 12c | 340$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 9c | 333$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 7c | 308.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 66c | 302.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 288.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 24c | 245$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…5f71backed Yes | 15c | 226.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 10c | 225$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910b…8a6bbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…955cbacked No | 58c | 142.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 41c | 142$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 61c | 139.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 128.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 116$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f22…41c6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…bab4backed Yes | 16c | 87.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 77c | 78.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 39c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ad…4c12backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…3ba4backed Yes | 43c | 46.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 24c | 43.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 60c | 42.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…8990backed No | 59c | 33.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 41c | 29.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.