Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b00e0a13b86d356aec00d473653acd9e8ac71e3236bca8049545b57fe51d2c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $566,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $529,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $566,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 325 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84bc…63efbacked Yes | 49c | 26,760$13,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,139.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 42c | 24,609$10,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,258.53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 43c | 19,849$8,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,507.21 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Yes | 62c | 15,659$9,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,682.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 41c | 13,618$5,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,068.88 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…9752backed Yes | 78c | 11,804$9,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,181.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 22c | 11,716$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 40c | 11,207$4,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,508.51 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 27c | 10,029$2,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,754.55 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…b8e5backed Yes | 49c | 9,353$4,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,592.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 35c | 9,001$3,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,162.89 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 76c | 8,693$6,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.29 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 42c | 8,012$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333.4 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 15c | 7,838$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.14 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed No | 40c | 6,833$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,132.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 8c | 6,295$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,791.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 9cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 5,330$2,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.02 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 60c | 4,796$2,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.85 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 58c | 4,759$2,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.09 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed No | 65c | 4,710$3,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.22 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…b5eebacked Yes | 21c | 4,700$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed No | 61c | 4,516$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.94 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 47c | 4,493$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,402.63 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…3614backed No | 50c | 3,956$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,978.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 39c | 3,817$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,326.95 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 27c | 3,757$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 65c | 3,187$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.64 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 42c | 3,172$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 30c | 3,044$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.39 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 48c | 2,853$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.32 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 13c | 2,486$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.75 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…3d3bbacked Yes | 37c | 2,476$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9654…a94ebacked No | 63c | 2,461$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…f010backed No | 68c | 2,432$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 78c | 2,234$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.18 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4372…07f1backed Yes | 32c | 2,153$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed No | 48c | 2,090$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.59 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fe…804ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,961$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 40c | 1,934$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,915$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 60c | 1,884$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.15 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…cf0dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,799$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…01f8backed Yes | 48c | 1,757$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f93…355bbacked Yes | 58c | 1,703$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed Yes | 29c | 1,677$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99df…3746backed No | 65c | 1,542$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 33c | 1,490$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.35 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 53c | 1,476$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…3198backed Yes | 53c | 1,469$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…683cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,410$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 21c | 1,408$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 34c | 1,340$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 28c | 1,271$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.59 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 1,160$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.64 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 45c | 1,140$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffbe…9b9cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,098$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,091$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.04 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…b79abacked Yes | 32c | 1,081$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,018$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.1 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…8ce6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…faaebacked Yes | 44c | 1,000$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 47c | 969.7$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.39 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 24c | 929.31$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.35 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 22c | 908$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.24 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…75e8backed No | 56c | 866.06$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed No | 32c | 800$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 19c | 730.12$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.66 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…7efbbacked Yes | 47c | 714.83$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 37c | 702.1$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.8 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…c8d9backed Yes | 11c | 701$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa83f…d82cbacked Yes | 22c | 669.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 42c | 620.39$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.83 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99d…bdd1backed Yes | 36c | 600$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…2f92backed Yes | 52c | 544.06$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 19c | 536.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…9711backed Yes | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9e…0a21backed Yes | 56c | 532.73$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a4…3956backed Yes | 40c | 525$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x075d…8cf5backed Yes | 74c | 509.83$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 39c | 506.17$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…23d8backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 34c | 498.32$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.43 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 42c | 497.14$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.4 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 30c | 486.48$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.01 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 30c | 460.76$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Yes | 33c | 459.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.44 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 41c | 450$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.12 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Yes | 47c | 428.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x899b…fbdfbacked Yes | 47c | 421.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 13c | 410$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 46c | 399$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Fink for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.