Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27f33ec9a9433a0363086696610683cab7d6faeef195a352f08f2dae88d2b606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $328,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 112,316$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 0c | 45,685$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.07 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 1c | 14,371$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.82 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,178$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 6,555$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.26 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,816$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 21c | 3,231$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.75 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 8c | 2,043$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.35 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,920$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,821$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,396$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 8c | 967.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 7c | 823.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 6c | 749.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 77c | 715.26$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.51 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 619.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 78c | 443.97$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 20c | 427.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…29bcbacked Yes | 20c | 369.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941c…5a35backed Yes | 16c | 245.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 13c | 215$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked Yes | 16c | 205.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc325…c87fbacked Yes | 22c | 203.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…6e07backed Yes | 20c | 185.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed Yes | 22c | 177$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 80c | 166.74$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…4783backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3b…e6ecbacked Yes | 20c | 109.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…83edbacked Yes | 16c | 109.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…8eaebacked Yes | 11c | 107.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Fink for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.