Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x268ada694cb4b1a65f88bf6dedce0c08d5aba09621dbe85d9200ced0cac6226b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $329,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 41,571$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 30,191$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.88 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,138$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 2c | 11,378$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 9,800$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab10…04d9backed Yes | 4c | 7,543$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 7,165$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.38 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…ed33backed Yes | 1c | 7,009$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 6,468$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 2c | 5,677$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66af…d58ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 1c | 4,270$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 1c | 3,598$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 0c | 2,959$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 2,766$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…8f03backed Yes | 1c | 2,184$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…5014backed Yes | 3c | 2,145$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,464$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 1c | 1,314$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…877bbacked Yes | 2c | 766.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 562.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…241ebacked Yes | 3c | 502.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 4c | 419$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 4c | 392.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…9711backed Yes | 29c | 346.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa682…51edbacked Yes | 7c | 337.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 77c | 316$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes | 19c | 260$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 6c | 238.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 10c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…cb50backed Yes | 35c | 133.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Yes | 25c | 115$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…35ebbacked Yes | 25c | 80.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 70c | 78.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…954bbacked Yes | 25c | 66.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331c…51dabacked Yes | 27c | 57.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…3838backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Fink for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.