Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x847609d7ce75ec7f854137878cd2c53dee2b466258bfed7f87628d74c335e548
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $485,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $235,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2df2…a61dbacked Yes | 0c | 47,236$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 34,131$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.93 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 29,886$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.68 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed Yes | 2c | 17,280$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.13 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 2c | 17,186$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.36 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 2c | 15,417$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.29 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 2c | 15,063$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.54 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 14,317$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.52 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,838$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…7609backed Yes | 4c | 10,427$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 1c | 9,125$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 1c | 7,424$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 6,994$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Yes | 3c | 6,968$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…ed33backed Yes | 1c | 6,766$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 3c | 6,742$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 6,214$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 1c | 5,727$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.03 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 3c | 5,461$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 2c | 4,741$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 4c | 4,394$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.42 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…35ebbacked Yes | 3c | 3,705$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…e8c8backed Yes | 2c | 3,685$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 1c | 3,630$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 1c | 3,477$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed Yes | 4c | 3,435$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 2c | 3,341$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 6c | 3,228$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.97 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 3c | 3,131$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 5c | 3,027$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ab…a596backed Yes | 3c | 3,004$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,743$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 2c | 2,203$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 4c | 2,053$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 3c | 1,752$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 4c | 1,574$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6a…0ad1backed Yes | 2c | 1,460$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,356$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes | 5c | 998.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 1c | 955.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…8eaebacked Yes | 3c | 929.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 2c | 832$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…83edbacked Yes | 2c | 760.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 15c | 669.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 4c | 602.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb73b…ace6backed Yes | 13c | 576.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 2c | 560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 6c | 495.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 4c | 491.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 3c | 480.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…a690backed Yes | 3c | 401$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 7c | 280.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…cd9fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 7c | 159.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed Yes | 10c | 157$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 14c | 73.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Fink for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.