Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b1fb15cb93e0d3db85cb283460ed8236078250c7d07f7f8f0cda968691fc5e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 51,062$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 0c | 21,843$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 0c | 19,196$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…5ea1backed Yes | 1c | 14,284$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e0…6d1fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…819bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,990$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…a037backed Yes | 0c | 8,307$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 0c | 7,803$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 6,248$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 0c | 5,665$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,080$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 0c | 4,333$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,597$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…8f03backed Yes | 2c | 2,211$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…ed33backed Yes | 1c | 2,092$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed Yes | 1c | 1,931$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…1769backed Yes | 1c | 1,472$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,304$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 2c | 658.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 5c | 439.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 225.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 8c | 195.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…17d8backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed No | 63c | 110.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…f932backed Yes | 37c | 79.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Fink for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.