Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75f3339b115d3a948712a68736c2e6e7dd2c3835453258b258c4592225386407
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $526,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $299,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $526,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb152…8315backed Yes | 7c | 45,000$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,330 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 7c | 40,206$3,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,009.12 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 29,277$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…7609backed Yes | 8c | 16,275$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 9c | 14,505$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.6 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 6c | 10,431$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.89 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…d932backed Yes | 1c | 9,087$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 20c | 8,491$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.87 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 5c | 8,420$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.74 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 8,390$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.02 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 8c | 8,102$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.59 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 8c | 7,793$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.23 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 5c | 7,529$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.19 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…db23backed Yes | 5c | 7,001$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…ed33backed Yes | 1c | 5,479$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 5,179$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.63 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 6c | 5,153$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.87 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…6d88backed Yes | 20c | 4,897$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…745ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,197$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 6c | 4,096$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 3,996$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 8c | 3,987$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 3c | 3,923$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 3,807$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.75 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 0c | 3,657$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 10c | 3,215$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.44 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 25c | 3,029$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.97 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d9…11bcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,850$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a7…3da6backed Yes | 23c | 2,825$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 8c | 2,801$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.65 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…cea6backed Yes | 6c | 2,742$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,623$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.33 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 8c | 2,618$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.08 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,609$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…6dd3backed Yes | 2c | 2,533$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 0c | 2,459$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…d7c8backed Yes | 15c | 2,411$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 10c | 2,238$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.11 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…23d8backed Yes | 13c | 2,113$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…1223backed Yes | 5c | 2,029$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…fde3backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Yes | 5c | 1,928$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 6c | 1,923$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,812$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a8…b7b9backed Yes | 9c | 1,793$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 13c | 1,769$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…4985backed Yes | 5c | 1,761$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 4c | 1,625$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…0414backed Yes | 18c | 1,620$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,554$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.22 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 17c | 1,489$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.26 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 8c | 1,478$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…5b47backed Yes | 6c | 1,469$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…e8c8backed Yes | 14c | 1,466$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…ef27backed Yes | 7c | 1,441$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…42debacked Yes | 14c | 1,317$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 9c | 1,292$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…5f08backed Yes | 12c | 1,290$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…b79abacked Yes | 25c | 1,199$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 11c | 1,189$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 14c | 1,168$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.04 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5a…33a3backed Yes | 9c | 1,118$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Yes | 19c | 1,090$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.92 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…21bcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 3c | 990.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 6c | 989$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 8c | 983.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 25c | 963.59$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.27 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…35ebbacked Yes | 10c | 900.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…9b56backed Yes | 11c | 832.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 5c | 800$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 3c | 769.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 2c | 727.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 8c | 710$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 7c | 709.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 13c | 678.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…989ebacked Yes | 14c | 670.28$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 12c | 663.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 10c | 630$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 9c | 625$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 8c | 617$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 3c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235f…1810backed Yes | 7c | 576.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 11c | 512.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 11c | 501.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 9c | 500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…ec02backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 7c | 447.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 3c | 422.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…43b7backed Yes | 5c | 421.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 8c | 404.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5971…bec3backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 7c | 380$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…ae00backed Yes | 13c | 372.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Yes | 12c | 360.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 14c | 320$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Fink for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.