Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd95d7e22fd8c9ef5d61285b4ed31aa84e8fdf35192db24d8e7d8938ed4747dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,147,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $976,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,147,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 1c | 114,662$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.42 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 32c | 100,001$31,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,841.11 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 77,944$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.41 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…f010backed Yes | 34c | 57,411$19,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,267.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed No | 70c | 46,161$32,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,708.98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 1c | 34,129$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.4 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 62c | 23,335$14,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,854.06 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 10c | 21,544$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.64 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c51…8cddbacked Yes | 27c | 17,951$4,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,818.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 33c | 17,212$5,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,686.83 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 61c | 16,380$10,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,344.09 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked Yes | 1c | 11,477$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…84a4backed Yes | 31c | 11,362$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 3c | 11,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 65c | 9,368$6,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,235.64 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 28c | 9,173$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,569.88 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…8315backed Yes | 29c | 9,001$2,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 5c | 8,674$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.47 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…c873backed Yes | 5c | 7,005$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 30c | 6,054$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.16 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…a690backed Yes | 24c | 5,930$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 56c | 5,903$3,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,598.02 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…db23backed Yes | 4c | 5,854$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…e8c8backed No | 71c | 5,820$4,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked No | 66c | 5,717$3,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 43c | 4,736$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.29 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…b587backed Yes | 49c | 4,239$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 0c | 3,919$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c17…4f7fbacked Yes | 32c | 3,583$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 19c | 3,543$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 75c | 3,513$2,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.06 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…7297backed Yes | 25c | 3,505$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…f756backed No | 60c | 3,500$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed99…bf51backed Yes | 0c | 3,363$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 70c | 3,060$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.12 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…868abacked Yes | 1c | 2,962$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…c1cfbacked Yes | 12c | 2,849$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 48c | 2,844$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.33 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e83…9cf2backed Yes | 1c | 2,714$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 3c | 2,700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 72c | 2,553$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.23 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d14…a653backed Yes | 40c | 2,516$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5712…2dc4backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 7c | 2,436$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.18 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…b8e5backed No | 74c | 2,319$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes | 43c | 2,298$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…8979backed Yes | 0c | 2,294$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f2…b4d7backed Yes | 3c | 2,151$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed No | 65c | 2,149$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…8728backed Yes | 13c | 2,113$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035d…5a61backed Yes | 46c | 2,093$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 50c | 2,057$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.7 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…47f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,030$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 26c | 2,000$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Yes | 52c | 2,000$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +78%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a37…712abacked Yes | 41c | 1,970$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…2a89backed Yes | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…fdbbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,935$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 63c | 1,826$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.24 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 44c | 1,825$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.93 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…e179backed Yes | 58c | 1,781$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 12c | 1,618$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.06 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 63c | 1,600$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.89 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c0…8244backed Yes | 2c | 1,523$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…e434backed Yes | 38c | 1,506$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…f277backed No | 71c | 1,500$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 65c | 1,436$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.48 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe003…f41ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,427$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Yes | 51c | 1,387$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.76 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 45c | 1,348$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.8 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe642…9440backed Yes | 45c | 1,320$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 5c | 1,316$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 56c | 1,306$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…fa1bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,291$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,279$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 13c | 1,246$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.09 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 70c | 1,232$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.63 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…fa3bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,230$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 44c | 1,223$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.84 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 32c | 1,183$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.07 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…a36dbacked No | 57c | 1,156$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 53c | 1,139$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…e78fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,123$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…e061backed Yes | 23c | 1,100$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked Yes | 17c | 1,043$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.51 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x121a…ca6bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,004$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…1223backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…72fcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Yes | 47c | 999.99$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 2c | 900.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…558ebacked Yes | 1c | 890.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 834.58$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.22 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 22c | 830.94$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.59 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 47c | 800$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes | 66c | 753.73$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 70c | 724.24$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.71 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Fink for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.