Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeaf0ffc3e3e658687bcdcab297333ac981025bf9a4277facae81123af4708e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $982,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,027,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $982,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10e1…c51fbacked Yes | 31c | 51,025$15,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,103.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 62c | 40,407$24,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,512.71 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 68c | 22,572$15,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,357.78 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 20c | 20,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,000 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 54c | 17,182$9,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,976.94 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c4…b84fbacked Yes | 41c | 15,924$6,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,404.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 62c | 15,333$9,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,537.32 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 77c | 11,289$8,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,639.28 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 26c | 11,246$2,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,278.27 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d29…e109backed Yes | 44c | 10,766$4,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,015.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 19c | 9,646$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,804.28 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf0…0609backed Yes | 42c | 9,537$3,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,547.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 39c | 8,609$3,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,291.51 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c59…4059backed Yes | 36c | 8,575$3,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,475.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…8315backed Yes | 38c | 8,000$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,960 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 19c | 7,474$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.87 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 37c | 6,334$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,019.16 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…48a5backed Yes | 39c | 6,286$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,848.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 38c | 6,154$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,790.07 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…7f3dbacked No | 36c | 5,583$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 32c | 5,561$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,803.31 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 37c | 5,239$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,316.52 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…6544backed Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,970 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6253…20a6backed Yes | 13c | 4,913$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,292.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +692%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 7c | 4,771$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 40c | 4,664$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,796.89 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 4,567$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…23d8backed Yes | 31c | 4,477$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,091.38 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 28c | 4,374$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,164.45 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 24c | 4,213$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.75 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 3,952$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.22 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 39c | 3,695$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,253.74 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…24e0backed Yes | 12c | 3,600$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,163.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +725.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 29c | 3,486$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,464.09 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…b929backed No | 54c | 3,378$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…827ebacked Yes | 31c | 3,333$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,297.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe849…edd7backed Yes | 28c | 3,268$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,362.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Yes | 68c | 3,136$2,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 62c | 3,104$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.07 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 34c | 3,082$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,028.38 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…558ebacked No | 36c | 2,810$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 32c | 2,637$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 24c | 2,620$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.22 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 49c | 2,586$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.15 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 29c | 2,544$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.72 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…fa1bbacked Yes | 55c | 2,484$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…6a75backed Yes | 46c | 2,464$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 57c | 2,346$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.92 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 67c | 2,226$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.28 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…b8e5backed Yes | 66c | 2,201$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…2b5ebacked Yes | 46c | 2,186$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed No | 52c | 2,045$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x666e…296abacked Yes | 50c | 2,034$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6108…4cb5backed No | 50c | 2,030$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaad…a862backed Yes | 46c | 2,021$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes | 50c | 2,010$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.03 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a37…712abacked Yes | 49c | 2,007$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 61c | 2,003$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.2 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb694…c83cbacked Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 58c | 2,000$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.85 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 51c | 1,980$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.43 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…cb44backed Yes | 75c | 1,951$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 57c | 1,926$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.58 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…9c69backed Yes | 19c | 1,889$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,855$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…5e30backed Yes | 16c | 1,815$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +514.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 1,780$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.8 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 62c | 1,772$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.33 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 42c | 1,727$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.25 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…dc57backed Yes | 44c | 1,682$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,601$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.17 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 43c | 1,562$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 27c | 1,545$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…b917backed Yes | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…35a7backed No | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5369…7302backed No | 24c | 1,489$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc40…53a2backed Yes | 34c | 1,473$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 41c | 1,443$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.44 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…f756backed Yes | 28c | 1,433$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 47c | 1,423$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.31 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…b9e5backed Yes | 41c | 1,409$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 17c | 1,400$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 51c | 1,361$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.52 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…b44ebacked Yes | 74c | 1,347$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 21c | 1,338$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.88 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x121a…ca6bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,289$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 79c | 1,276$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 53c | 1,248$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.98 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…3d3bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,241$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed No | 22c | 1,212$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 4c | 1,187$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 19c | 1,187$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.11 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed No | 65c | 1,178$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.08 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 44c | 1,082$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.84 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…21bcbacked No | 58c | 1,045$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…1223backed No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5456…f6e0backed Yes | 46c | 934.13$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Fink for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.