TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$982,379
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,027,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $982,379 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x10e1…c51fbacked Yes31c51,025$15,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,103.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+132.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes62c40,407$24,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,512.717041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked No68c22,572$15,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,357.785721.1%12 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-69%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes20c20,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,0004833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes54c17,182$9,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,976.9413540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0c4…b84fbacked Yes41c15,924$6,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,404.292100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+137.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No62c15,333$9,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,537.3223639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes77c11,289$8,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.2815332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes26c11,246$2,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,278.276051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d29…e109backed Yes44c10,766$4,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,015.512100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes19c9,646$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,804.2837844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1bf0…0609backed Yes42c9,537$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,547.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes39c8,609$3,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,291.513441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c59…4059backed Yes36c8,575$3,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,475.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+176.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb152…8315backed Yes38c8,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9601010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No19c7,474$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.878219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes37c6,334$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,019.1632029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc5…48a5backed Yes39c6,286$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,848.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed Yes38c6,154$2,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,790.072347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3955…7f3dbacked No36c5,583$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.2633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+76.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes32c5,561$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,803.313212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1013…45cfbacked Yes37c5,239$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,316.522035%7 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd1…6544backed Yes21c5,000$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,970450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6253…20a6backed Yes13c4,913$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,292.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+692%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked No7c4,771$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.572147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes40c4,664$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,796.895038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No1c4,567$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.61244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad90…23d8backed Yes31c4,477$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,091.381838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes28c4,374$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.452321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes24c4,213$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,212.753129%9 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No25c3,952$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.2299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes39c3,695$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,253.7410324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa94e…24e0backed Yes12c3,600$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,163.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+725.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes29c3,486$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,464.093935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb03…b929backed No54c3,378$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c51…827ebacked Yes31c3,333$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.611250%6 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+39.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe849…edd7backed Yes28c3,268$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+260.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Yes68c3,136$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No62c3,104$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.072245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes34c3,082$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,028.382454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3baa…558ebacked No36c2,810$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed Yes32c2,637$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.011330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1581…6cadbacked Yes24c2,620$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.223125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes49c2,586$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.1517225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes29c2,544$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.724729.8%14 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee5…fa1bbacked Yes55c2,484$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddc…6a75backed Yes46c2,464$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No57c2,346$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.929746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No67c2,226$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.284645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da6…b8e5backed Yes66c2,201$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x523d…2b5ebacked Yes46c2,186$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e96…9971backed No52c2,045$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.31717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x666e…296abacked Yes50c2,034$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6108…4cb5backed No50c2,030$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaad…a862backed Yes46c2,021$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes50c2,010$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.032133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a37…712abacked Yes49c2,007$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No61c2,003$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.210749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb694…c83cbacked Yes47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No58c2,000$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.855851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes51c1,980$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.4313537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08e…cb44backed Yes75c1,951$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes57c1,926$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.5811538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94e4…9c69backed Yes19c1,889$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes33c1,855$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.73560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+121.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fbc…5e30backed Yes16c1,815$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+514.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c1,780$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.81,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed No62c1,772$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.334235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes42c1,727$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.257838.5%30 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72e7…dc57backed Yes44c1,682$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.631741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes56c1,601$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.173751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x025e…0420backed Yes43c1,562$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.391010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-76.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2583…0626backed No27c1,545$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.251957.9%11 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.34per pick24cpaid+178.1%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x0e3e…b917backed Yes74c1,500$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3903100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3208…35a7backed No26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5369…7302backed No24c1,489$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.36540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc40…53a2backed Yes34c1,473$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+45.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes41c1,443$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.4413673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xdbaa…f756backed Yes28c1,433$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.331250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes47c1,423$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.318143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…b9e5backed Yes41c1,409$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No17c1,400$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.96740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No51c1,361$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.5212531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c9…b44ebacked Yes74c1,347$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.43742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed No21c1,338$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.883333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+56.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x121a…ca6bbacked Yes28c1,289$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.63450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+103.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes79c1,276$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.431435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-41.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes53c1,248$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.982524%6 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c18…3d3bbacked Yes33c1,241$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed No22c1,212$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.391942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No4c1,187$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.54057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No19c1,187$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.116033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed No65c1,178$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.084216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes44c1,082$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.845158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad63…21bcbacked No58c1,045$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.1340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x922d…1223backed No52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes21c1,000$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79015646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7507254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes42c999.99$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.99850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5456…f6e0backed Yes46c934.13$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.013100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+73.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.