Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x593ba27e0b0493597a447beeda8d837ad607917ba978b82ca25a2cacbefcd388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $386,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 12c | 20,452$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 15,785$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.8 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 10c | 15,583$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.42 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 21c | 15,485$3,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,187.6 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 20c | 13,575$2,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,687.83 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 11c | 11,657$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.23 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…7609backed Yes | 12c | 11,536$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 18c | 11,250$2,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.1 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 22c | 9,252$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.04 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 31c | 8,624$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,704.22 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 21c | 7,476$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.77 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 6,548$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.16 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 13c | 6,125$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.14 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 11c | 5,606$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 10c | 4,758$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.1 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 22c | 4,383$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.71 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 43c | 3,802$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.33 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 29c | 3,040$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.42 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 24c | 2,844$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.38 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 17c | 2,842$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed Yes | 14c | 2,835$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2286…c31fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,791$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 9c | 2,535$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eef…4db7backed Yes | 42c | 2,408$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 25c | 2,384$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.29 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 8c | 2,357$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.59 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…21bcbacked Yes | 13c | 2,330$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 19c | 2,190$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…7a84backed Yes | 35c | 2,048$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Yes | 16c | 2,007$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,922$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 11c | 1,872$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 23c | 1,848$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 10c | 1,800$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 21c | 1,691$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.33 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 16c | 1,682$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.07 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 8c | 1,560$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.79 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,520$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.6 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ba…b8a4backed Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 72c | 1,322$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.27 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…c546backed Yes | 27c | 1,265$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…c8d9backed Yes | 9c | 1,190$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed No | 79c | 1,154$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…6212backed Yes | 39c | 1,154$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 17c | 1,142$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.18 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…6544backed No | 55c | 1,135$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…819bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,107$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,103$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.84 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,026$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…6003backed Yes | 21c | 1,013$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…8ce6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…a59abacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 29c | 948.97$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.8 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…744bbacked Yes | 44c | 915.45$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 10c | 864.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 20c | 849.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 17c | 849.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…3d3bbacked Yes | 12c | 849.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 13c | 846.67$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 20c | 791.01$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x119e…2129backed No | 74c | 769.35$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd548…5a72backed Yes | 33c | 756.4$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 16c | 747.92$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 11c | 742.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…3198backed Yes | 60c | 673.94$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed Yes | 22c | 655$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…15e2backed Yes | 10c | 620$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 70c | 609.11$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.82 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 18c | 587.91$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 18c | 575.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 15c | 573.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 17c | 571.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…1a28backed Yes | 26c | 565.46$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed Yes | 27c | 539$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 78c | 498$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 58c | 480$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.6 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…4b23backed Yes | 23c | 433.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…4e18backed Yes | 51c | 415.9$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…723abacked Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked Yes | 8c | 382.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde3d…42f3backed Yes | 27c | 371.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 7c | 360$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 33c | 350$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.39 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 18c | 324.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…f82abacked Yes | 19c | 315.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 75c | 293.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…dcecbacked Yes | 30c | 292.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…521cbacked Yes | 25c | 285.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 26c | 284.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…5e2bbacked Yes | 15c | 281.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 15c | 278.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 11c | 271.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…6dd3backed Yes | 20c | 270$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdb…39c5backed Yes | 15c | 265.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Fink for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.