Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc6748fd7df73f8c13cca945c99806c2b5d0032db6a6de7eed32c91ca3814b89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 3c | 9,308$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.01 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 74c | 9,133$6,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,721.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 12c | 6,637$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 16c | 5,015$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…7934backed No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…d698backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,399.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 13c | 4,556$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +220.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 79c | 3,224$2,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.34 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a9…48b9backed No | 25c | 3,200$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…9d9fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 72c | 2,875$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 14c | 2,862$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.54 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 70c | 1,640$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.88 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 75c | 1,610$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.97 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…f7f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 20c | 1,409$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.49 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 20c | 1,404$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.72 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 57c | 1,357$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.1 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…4f72backed Yes | 12c | 1,350$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 41c | 1,256$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.48 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 70c | 1,119$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.67 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 12c | 1,080$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,001$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed Yes | 10c | 999.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 25c | 960$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 79c | 797.4$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.93 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 737.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.75 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…faaebacked Yes | 61c | 700$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…a482backed Yes | 55c | 676.5$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed Yes | 59c | 647.46$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 52c | 609.18$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.65 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…1140backed Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 11c | 540$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 11c | 530.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6050…80d6backed No | 64c | 500$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed Yes | 32c | 491.05$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Yes | 12c | 473.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…d0c6backed Yes | 16c | 451.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb049…cc61backed Yes | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…9c61backed Yes | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…2d9ebacked Yes | 73c | 429.88$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155f…82a7backed Yes | 11c | 429.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…bee0backed Yes | 12c | 421.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…d801backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +193%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed No | 79c | 390.68$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +160.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 77c | 370$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…9c95backed Yes | 10c | 369.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 14c | 362.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 26c | 356.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 20c | 325.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…e9f1backed Yes | 19c | 271.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked No | 74c | 260.09$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 69c | 252.06$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.74 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c9…7dc6backed Yes | 30c | 246.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…0dc6backed Yes | 15c | 233.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…caa1backed Yes | 13c | 233.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 18c | 212.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…113ebacked Yes | 20c | 200.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 200.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…d0b0backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 13c | 198.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…b69dbacked Yes | 11c | 183$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 50c | 180.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…1102backed Yes | 50c | 178.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 174$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Yes | 12c | 172$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…2b6ebacked No | 40c | 165.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 20c | 164.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 31c | 160.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 19c | 158.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x109b…8671backed Yes | 32c | 155.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb02…e10dbacked Yes | 14c | 146.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 66c | 144.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…744bbacked No | 73c | 137.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…3a77backed Yes | 13c | 134$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e6…ab7abacked Yes | 15c | 129.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed Yes | 80c | 129.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d1…ffe3backed Yes | 74c | 124.32$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes | 13c | 119.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed No | 20c | 119.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yes | 14c | 115.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…7b5fbacked Yes | 13c | 110.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f18…9536backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 21c | 104.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed No | 58c | 101$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…4cdebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 18cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5fd9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.