Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fbe79f5e5528696e5565bc8ee2b3e15ac66ba69345c6a663f61f8ac7b4bb91c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $387,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $411,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84b…5055backed No | 52c | 159,003$81,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,918.72 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…dc57backed Yes | 63c | 51,158$32,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,829.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked Yes | 49c | 31,196$15,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,785.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 48c | 24,264$11,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,523.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe038…36b0backed No | 40c | 22,500$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 48c | 15,500$7,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,005 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 59c | 12,953$7,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,333.72 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…d0e9backed Yes | 60c | 11,500$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…6eb3backed Yes | 60c | 11,000$6,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 1c | 10,005$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed Yes | 41c | 9,290$3,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,507.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 50c | 8,360$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,179.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 42c | 8,030$3,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,657.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 47c | 7,000$3,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,702.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 50c | 6,525$3,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,251.43 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes | 45c | 6,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…07a4backed Yes | 59c | 5,206$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…b6ccbacked Yes | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…7934backed No | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…d698backed Yes | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…894bbacked No | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…7cb1backed Yes | 64c | 4,604$2,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed Yes | 52c | 4,214$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed Yes | 50c | 4,200$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 50c | 4,000$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 49c | 2,982$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.91 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 67c | 2,897$1,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.12 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…7fa0backed Yes | 51c | 2,800$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…bbfabacked Yes | 48c | 2,599$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…45f2backed Yes | 50c | 2,565$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…75bcbacked No | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 48c | 2,476$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…c7c8backed No | 43c | 2,317$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 47c | 1,831$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,777$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.06 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1659…cda7backed Yes | 64c | 1,571$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,504$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.96 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 49c | 1,396$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 50c | 1,389$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.71 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…1959backed Yes | 62c | 1,334$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 62c | 1,298$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.55 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…faaebacked Yes | 60c | 1,225$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…36d9backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…4f72backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 50c | 932.14$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe25…4e99backed Yes | 62c | 800.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…6502backed Yes | 59c | 706.76$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 39c | 684.95$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.81 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1204…b5c9backed No | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed No | 45c | 625.53$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…e505backed No | 40c | 612.5$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…ea7ebacked No | 44c | 605.98$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed No | 50c | 604.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 58c | 599.99$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 54c | 544.52$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.14 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…ce9fbacked Yes | 64c | 532.17$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 60c | 524.89$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 61c | 520$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875a…4290backed Yes | 62c | 510$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…b6afbacked No | 40c | 504.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Yes | 70c | 500$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…470fbacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed No | 44c | 490$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 53c | 471.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 50c | 465.59$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.58 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…c749backed No | 51c | 427.56$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2388backed No | 64c | 416.84$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…d0c6backed No | 53c | 400.71$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked No | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…0182backed Yes | 50c | 397.78$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 57c | 369.98$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 65c | 350$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked No | 49c | 350$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 45c | 346.81$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 52c | 320.31$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…f4e2backed No | 50c | 319.92$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf365…64ecbacked No | 48c | 312.57$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 49c | 312$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.58 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 47c | 306.4$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 41c | 300.58$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 37c | 299.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…f73cbacked No | 50c | 290$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 61c | 276.72$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.92 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…07dfbacked Yes | 59c | 274.2$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked No | 41c | 267.86$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e3…23d5backed No | 38c | 265.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.