TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$129,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,173 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6cf9…9d9fbacked Yes9c10,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,099.98540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+155.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2583…0626backed No14c7,142$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.88475%3 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick23cpaid+220.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a9…48b9backed No14c5,714$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick20cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No72c4,888$3,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,506.33366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a3…046ebacked No14c4,284$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes11c3,963$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,544.9319026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes13c2,998$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,598.31643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes11c2,973$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,643.938626.7%23 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ac…8669backed Yes12c2,612$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,301.83728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+39.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ab2…6539backed Yes11c2,479$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,215.51520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+87.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6619…6e32backed Yes12c2,141$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+765.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf03e…ad07backed Yes5c2,030$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,928.381100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+1,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49b8…762dbacked Yes10c2,000$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7951100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+875.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes17c2,000$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.236829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f66…4f72backed Yes14c2,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0401118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb2a…a436backed Yes11c1,976$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.94911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f11…157abacked Yes13c1,943$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.09742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+66.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b3…ade0backed Yes12c1,867$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.67425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes13c1,742$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.61166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0e6…50aebacked No14c1,714$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e6…801bbacked Yes12c1,706$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.52425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+103.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes14c1,705$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed Yes13c1,541$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.371637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…426bbacked Yes10c1,425$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+233.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes15c1,333$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.331533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+27%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51b7…9817backed Yes16c1,268$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0651100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes15c1,158$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.351546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d59…5575backed Yes14c1,123$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf23a…d3f8backed Yes14c1,028$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcf…78c7backed Yes12c838.46$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+746.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bd3…f996backed Yes12c833.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.33425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes11c799$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.11837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick16cpaid+118.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f60…92debacked Yes13c790.93$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+678.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73de…c4fabacked Yes10c780.36$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+462.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b3d…f0c9backed Yes10c769.92$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…ae05backed Yes13c754.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+277%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdde0…a9fcbacked Yes9c600$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5461100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes12c600$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7fa…de00backed Yes13c589.77$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.38425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+98.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1849…aca9backed Yes15c544.35$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+123.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed No14c535$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+85.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8a…67d7backed Yes14c500$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e7…ea7ebacked Yes11c500$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid+29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97d2…e372backed Yes11c500$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabec…e25cbacked Yes12c466.67$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes11c465.75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.63229.1%2 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe38b…4552backed Yes11c454.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e6…bee0backed Yes12c441.67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd9…76bdbacked Yes14c435.07$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbaa…59b8backed Yes12c416.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf414…917fbacked Yes12c416.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.67742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+71.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked Yes18c400$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3302817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9588…d801backed Yes11c400$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+193%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes8c356.15$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.666025%15 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes12c355.7$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.946412.5%8 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc39a…2214backed Yes8c301.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.41947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4639…ab5dbacked Yes11c261.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+354.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c231.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.420021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x741f…f6cabacked Yes19c230.11$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+75.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68cb…a3eebacked Yes14c214.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.29714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6106…5cd3backed Yes12c213.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+304.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa72…1285backed Yes18c200$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe783…aa3abacked Yes12c200$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+97.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes12c200$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1769018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes9c200$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1826616.7%11 W · 55 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae7…85d6backed Yes11c200$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1781100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked Yes15c194.44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.44922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes11c189$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.21520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+81.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e23…e24cbacked Yes11c181.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2f…94b1backed Yes10c179.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+400%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb69…9e7abacked Yes12c167.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+318.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa918…18c5backed Yes12c166.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.67616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba5b…6848backed Yes12c166.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcce7…dbedbacked Yes12c166.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6411…9f41backed Yes14c161.71$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac3…3189backed Yes12c159.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.73714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50da…0b82backed Yes12c157.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc726…c39abacked Yes10c145.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.86933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb281…e048backed Yes13c141.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.96875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+128.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x155f…82a7backed Yes11c140$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5243…1aa6backed Yes12c136$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.68633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9b…7fe0backed Yes12c128.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.79728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+87.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc5c…8283backed Yes16c125$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+391.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf45f…2634backed Yes18c123.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+73.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf1…ee1dbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.11944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac4…ccd6backed Yes15c110.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43eb…49febacked Yes14c107.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc52…a021backed Yes12c102.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+184.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894037.5%15 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+211.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dcb…b930backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+157.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e8…4cdebacked Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick18cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0049…6034backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+156.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59ef…5191backed Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+194.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4dc…d0f9backed Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes12c99.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.992714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d7…c725backed Yes14c85.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.71425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.