TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$155,978
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$158,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,978 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91c5…8ed0backed No50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1321…1f21backed Yes50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7382…dafcbacked Yes50c9,996$4,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,997.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bdb…8eb1backed No50c9,905$4,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,952.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No16c6,596$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.82725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7784…b6ccbacked No45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x069a…9ac0backed Yes55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b1…7934backed Yes55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea6…d698backed No45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f4…4719backed Yes55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68af…894bbacked Yes55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7246…a3dbbacked No45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9b…aabfbacked No45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-63.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No20c3,300$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.941118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No49c3,203$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.02922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6396…01cbbacked No1c3,083$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No48c3,041$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.127160.6%43 W · 28 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3f11…157abacked Yes43c2,541$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.53742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+66.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-51.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No49c1,978$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.185135.3%18 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No38c1,582$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.221560%9 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No56c1,446$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.371070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+52.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No30c1,369$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.084936.7%18 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3176…b725backed Yes71c1,309$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.581520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No43c1,140$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.66421.9%14 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed No42c1,048$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb3…8391backed Yes57c1,030$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a31…42a8backed No43c1,030$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5f…ed60backed Yes57c1,030$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee4…e51fbacked No43c1,030$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed No50c1,001$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.011822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-54.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d7e…a7b0backed No46c947.87$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef7f…a196backed Yes50c841.16$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No45c807.39$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.66540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x262e…c700backed Yes74c800.18$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes50c795.37$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.371040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+77.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed No43c761.63$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.071020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-69.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd61d…5446backed Yes57c738.87$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No44c678.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No59c655$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No48c652.97$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.148626.7%23 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x004c…1959backed No56c638.91$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.09560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee57…4cb0backed Yes50c630.89$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.7540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed No50c618.23$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.911942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No51c600$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.722161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed No54c552.43$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d9c…00f6backed No56c531.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-70.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1511…ce9fbacked Yes60c520.59$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked No47c512.48$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-38.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5fd…3348backed Yes36c507.89$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Yes47c499.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bad…74a7backed Yes59c499.99$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed Yes51c490.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.591668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked Yes56c468.59$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.951520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-49.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74da…1ba5backed No48c455.16$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x562d…db7dbacked Yes47c451.33$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f7…6374backed No56c443.17$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No54c439.57$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.42927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes56c435.44$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.786100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes40c419.41$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.419026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes49c417.56$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.32441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes52c399.99$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1922240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed Yes55c399.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No45c395.79$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.8420021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf81b…89b1backed Yes56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.142119%4 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…de08backed Yes62c349.98$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4b…19f1backed Yes43c346.76$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No46c342.98$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.035637.5%21 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Yes35c335$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.253930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-13.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No45c334.61$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.496829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e0…d485backed No53c328.3$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes60c326.16$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.4118135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x76aa…58cebacked Yes46c325.98$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x928f…9c61backed Yes43c323.88$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada8…a347backed Yes62c323.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+160.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c3e…2d9ebacked Yes43c322.73$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536442.2%27 W · 37 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x715b…3ee1backed Yes59c299.98$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.99875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+48.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes38c287.07$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.742030%6 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No48c274.96$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.132055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f66…4f72backed Yes49c274$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.74837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed No12c273.85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.86728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+85.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1013…45cfbacked No46c261.12$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf692…ed7dbacked Yes51c256.57$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6261…7ce4backed Yes57c254.97$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.64714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb8d…99ecbacked No51c251.16$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb40…7fa0backed Yes51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5827…69dcbacked Yes41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5515…835bbacked Yes50c241.03$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc39a…2214backed Yes41c230.55$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.991947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No45c223.66$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.651952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb272…dff8backed Yes43c219.32$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6346…9e28backed No55c218.46$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes40c216.55$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.251241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef1…7772backed Yes49c211.04$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567e…e315backed Yes53c208.53$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x872e…5ef3backed Yes45c206.7$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+78.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes47c204.17$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.219018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No50c204.04$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.439853.1%52 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.