Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ad788d4943f76ed656d2f0d3485d5bf066877035596b0151fe1d614707dc4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91c5…8ed0backed No | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…1f21backed Yes | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7382…dafcbacked Yes | 50c | 9,996$4,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,997.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdb…8eb1backed No | 50c | 9,905$4,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,952.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 16c | 6,596$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.8 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…b6ccbacked No | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…9ac0backed Yes | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…7934backed Yes | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…d698backed No | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4719backed Yes | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…894bbacked Yes | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7246…a3dbbacked No | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…aabfbacked No | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 20c | 3,300$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 49c | 3,203$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…01cbbacked No | 1c | 3,083$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 48c | 3,041$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.12 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f11…157abacked Yes | 43c | 2,541$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 49c | 1,978$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.18 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 38c | 1,582$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 56c | 1,446$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 30c | 1,369$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.08 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed Yes | 71c | 1,309$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.58 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 43c | 1,140$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.6 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 42c | 1,048$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…8391backed Yes | 57c | 1,030$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…42a8backed No | 43c | 1,030$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…ed60backed Yes | 57c | 1,030$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…e51fbacked No | 43c | 1,030$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 50c | 1,001$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.01 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed No | 46c | 947.87$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7f…a196backed Yes | 50c | 841.16$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 45c | 807.39$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x262e…c700backed Yes | 74c | 800.18$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 50c | 795.37$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed No | 43c | 761.63$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61d…5446backed Yes | 57c | 738.87$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 44c | 678.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 59c | 655$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 48c | 652.97$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.14 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…1959backed No | 56c | 638.91$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…4cb0backed Yes | 50c | 630.89$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed No | 50c | 618.23$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.91 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 51c | 600$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.72 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed No | 54c | 552.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed No | 56c | 531.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…ce9fbacked Yes | 60c | 520.59$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 47c | 512.48$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fd…3348backed Yes | 36c | 507.89$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Yes | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 59c | 499.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 51c | 490.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.59 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 56c | 468.59$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 48c | 455.16$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562d…db7dbacked Yes | 47c | 451.33$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…6374backed No | 56c | 443.17$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 54c | 439.57$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.4 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes | 56c | 435.44$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.78 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 40c | 419.41$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.4 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 49c | 417.56$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 52c | 399.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed Yes | 55c | 399.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 395.79$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.84 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…de08backed Yes | 62c | 349.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…19f1backed Yes | 43c | 346.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 46c | 342.98$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.03 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 35c | 335$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.25 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 45c | 334.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.49 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed No | 53c | 328.3$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 60c | 326.16$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…58cebacked Yes | 46c | 325.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…9c61backed Yes | 43c | 323.88$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed Yes | 62c | 323.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +160.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…2d9ebacked Yes | 43c | 322.73$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x715b…3ee1backed Yes | 59c | 299.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 38c | 287.07$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 48c | 274.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…4f72backed Yes | 49c | 274$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 12c | 273.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked No | 46c | 261.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…ed7dbacked Yes | 51c | 256.57$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 57c | 254.97$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…99ecbacked No | 51c | 251.16$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…7fa0backed Yes | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…835bbacked Yes | 50c | 241.03$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed Yes | 41c | 230.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 45c | 223.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…dff8backed Yes | 43c | 219.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6346…9e28backed No | 55c | 218.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 40c | 216.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…7772backed Yes | 49c | 211.04$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e315backed Yes | 53c | 208.53$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…5ef3backed Yes | 45c | 206.7$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 47c | 204.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.21 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 50c | 204.04$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.