Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6657e96ce361199545f86e9df46ed6450359e3b30b4c3510226c7a36263fac6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 80c | 14,328$11,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,890.81 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 20c | 13,555$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.97 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…426bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,300$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +233.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 70c | 6,747$4,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ea…2ba7backed Yes | 24c | 5,107$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Yes | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 20c | 4,921$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8937…5520backed No | 80c | 3,749$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed No | 78c | 3,696$2,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.17 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 77c | 3,117$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.71 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 21c | 2,506$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.37 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed Yes | 17c | 2,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 79c | 2,490$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 77c | 2,200$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,169$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed No | 73c | 2,150$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…801bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,077$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…f7f0backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8be7backed No | 68c | 1,911$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 50c | 1,815$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 79c | 1,620$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3391…ed51backed No | 78c | 1,520$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 67c | 1,440$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.56 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…4f72backed Yes | 20c | 1,350$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 77c | 1,300$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed Yes | 29c | 1,148$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…6ab9backed Yes | 21c | 1,134$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 19c | 1,074$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,065$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 36c | 1,021$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…ce9fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3d…f0c9backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked Yes | 26c | 987.57$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 942.02$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.83 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 27c | 911.81$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 79c | 855.34$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.83 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…269bbacked Yes | 23c | 854.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 849.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 22c | 803.52$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 56c | 799.15$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.87 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes | 23c | 793.5$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.63 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 32c | 791$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.21 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…917fbacked Yes | 19c | 789.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 69c | 769.12$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…ccf7backed Yes | 60c | 746.03$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed Yes | 28c | 724.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fd…3348backed Yes | 29c | 712.5$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 31c | 710$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed Yes | 27c | 696.5$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 66c | 650$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…a862backed Yes | 8c | 615.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…5cc6backed Yes | 67c | 600$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 76c | 576.78$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.91 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 67c | 557.58$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…f73cbacked Yes | 28c | 537.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed Yes | 20c | 527.66$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…ea7ebacked Yes | 23c | 500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…d0c6backed Yes | 32c | 470.27$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…9e7abacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +318.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 45c | 444.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 19c | 421.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c8…0cc3backed Yes | 28c | 406.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 72c | 400.6$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…f860backed No | 57c | 393.58$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…ee42backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Yes | 27c | 364.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 28c | 360.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 24c | 354.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 22c | 350$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed Yes | 21c | 341.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…beaebacked Yes | 39c | 327.93$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Yes | 22c | 311.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 28c | 285.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 23c | 282.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…7772backed Yes | 26c | 278.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked No | 61c | 276.68$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 26c | 272.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…9b62backed Yes | 27c | 271.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce7…dbedbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…67e0backed Yes | 20c | 259.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 46c | 258.35$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 22c | 257$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…de00backed Yes | 22c | 254.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 53c | 246$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa650…47d4backed Yes | 49c | 244.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Yes | 24c | 242.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…d3f8backed Yes | 25c | 235.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…bee0backed Yes | 24c | 230.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2372…8881backed Yes | 10c | 221.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 219.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…58cebacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…7b93backed No | 75c | 216.59$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.